Monday, September 14

A quiet reason the Cardinals have been able to keep their head above water the last couple of years has been their ability to sustain the health of their starting pitchers. From September 2024 until August 2026, the Cardinals put only one starter on the IL with an arm injury, and that was Sonny Gray at the end of ‘24, something done more for precautionary purposes. 

The Cardinals have credited their own processes -- both in treatment and the precautionary way manager Oliver Marmol and pitching coach Dusty Blake treat injuries -- in helping make this happen. They don’t consider it an accident.

But now, just as the team enters what it expects to be an era of perpetual contention, arm injuries have at last reared their ugly head. Andre Pallante missed two starts with elbow inflammation, although he did look perfectly fine in his return start Friday. More concerning is that last week, Hunter Dobbins underwent the second Tommy John surgery of his career, removing a promising arm from the team’s 2027 rotation plans.

Losing Dobbins is unquestionably a big blow. In light of that setback, then, it’s worth taking a look at which pitchers could be a part of the 2027 rotation: Who has secured a spot, who may have to fight for one and who might show up by the end of the season.

LOCKS

RHP Kyle Leahy

After regularly hitting the fifth-inning wall for much of the first half -- reasonable for a pitcher who spent the previous three seasons as a reliever -- Leahy has been the team’s unquestioned ace since the All-Star break. In that time, he’s put up a 2.74 ERA and, most intriguingly, lowering his walk rate while raising his strikeout rate. (His K/BB ratio has climbed from 2.27 to 9.80.) Leahy’s workload has been slashed down the stretch because he’s reaching an innings limit, but that’s to protect him for 2027. He’s a lock for the rotation if healthy, and we shouldn’t be surprised if he starts on Opening Day.

RHP Michael McGreevy

As close as the Cardinals have to a reliable innings eater this year, McGreevy has done what a rotation stalwart is supposed to do: Give the Cardinals a chance to win every night. He leads the team in innings (154) and walk rate (6.6%) and has earned raves for his preparation and calm on the mound. There are obvious downsides: He still doesn’t strike anybody out (10th percentile in K rate), and his expected ERA is almost 1 1/2 runs higher than his actual ERA (an issue Leahy shares). McGreevy also has struggled since the break (5.68 ERA), although he was solid on Monday night in San Francisco. But with as much uncertainty as the 2027 rotation already has, the Cardinals will want reliable arms, and McGreevy is definitely that.

RHP Andre Pallante

Pallante has rebounded from a miserable 2025 to have the best year of his career when he needed it the most. He’s another pitcher who has been fantastic in the second half (2-0 with a 2.41 ERA in seven starts), though his peripherals haven’t been nearly as strong as Leahy’s. His strikeout rate is low and surely will remain so, but he has consistently found ways to use his arsenal of pitches and his over-the-top arm motion to stay in games and rely on the Gold Glove contenders behind him. Eventually the Cardinals will want more swing-and-miss in the rotation, but for 2027, Pallante will have to pitch his way out of it.

POSSIBILITIES

LHP Quinn Mathews

The rookie is probably the next likeliest 2027 rotation piece. His first three starts were inefficient and showed flashes of the control issues he’s had in the Minors, but his two most recent ones, against the Dodgers and Pirates, have been excellent (albeit with still too many walks). His stuff is terrific -- if he can get it under control. He’ll be 26 in less than a month; 2027 is probably the time to see if he can.

RHP Richard Fitts

The right-hander the Cardinals got in the Gray trade underwent surgery for a right lat strain in April and is expected to be back in time for Spring Training. The Cardinals were very impressed with him heading into the year, and he’ll be 27 in December. If he’s recovered, he’s a clear option.

LHP Cooper Hjerpe

The 2022 first-round pick couldn’t have had a better start to his MLB career, tossing four perfect innings and earning a win in his MLB debut on Sunday at Coors Field. He’s still working his way back from Tommy John surgery that cost him all of 2025, so it’s unlikely the Cardinals would push him too hard, but they seem very much committed to him as a starter. He’ll be piggybacking Leahy’s starts for the rest of the year.

LOOKING IFFY

LHP Matthew Liberatore
Liberatore’s underlying numbers have been better than his traditional ones; that’s been a fairly low bar. His curveball remains elite, but his four-seamer has been hit hard this year, and he continues to fade as the game goes along. It sure seems like his future is in the bullpen, perhaps as a swingman. The 2026 Opening Day starter has had five seasons to lock down a rotation spot, and it still hasn’t happened.

PROSPECTS ON THE WAY

It’s exciting how many possibilities there are here, from 2025 first-round pick Liam Doyle (MLB Pipeline’s No. 2 Cardinals prospect and No. 44 overall prospect) to Tanner Franklin (No. 5 on Pipeline’s Cardinals list) to Brandon Clarke (No. 9) to Jurrangelo Cijntje (No. 12). All of these pitchers are expected to make larger contributions in 2028 and onward, but they’re on track to debut at some point in 2027.

TBD FREE AGENTS

The Cardinals would love to strike gold again like they did this past offseason with Dustin May, a free agent willing to sign on a one-year deal and rebuild his value. (Think Kris Bubic, maybe even Shane Bieber.) But it’s unlikely that -- at least for 2027 -- they’re going to play at the top of the pitching market.

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