Thursday, September 25

Welcome back to the Mets Beat newsletter! Anthony DiComo has covered the Mets for MLB.com since 2007, including the past 16 seasons full-time on the beat.

CHICAGO -- Contrary to popular belief, it’s not over. 

With six games remaining in the regular season, it’s certainly true that things aren’t looking great for the Mets. They’re now on the outside of the National League postseason bubble looking in, after once holding an 8 1/2 game margin in that race. They’re no longer in control of their own destiny, meaning the Mets could theoretically win every remaining game and still miss the playoffs. 

That’s the bad news. The good news is that a clear path still exists for the Mets to advance into the Wild Card Series. If they can successfully travel it, very little of what happened in August and September will matter. 

Here’s a primer for what awaits New York over its last six games: 

What is the current playoff situation? 

The Mets are tied with the Reds for the third and final NL Wild Card spot. But the Reds hold a crucial head-to-head tiebreaker, meaning if those two teams remain knotted, Cincinnati will advance to the postseason while the Mets go home. 

The Diamondbacks lurk one game farther behind. They, too, own a tiebreaker over the Mets, but the Reds hold one over them. If all three clubs finish tied, the Reds will make the playoffs. In other words, for the Mets to qualify for the postseason, they’ll need to finish at least one game ahead of both the Diamondbacks and Reds.

While the Giants, Marlins and Cardinals remain mathematically alive, as well, all are at least three games out. That’s probably too much ground to recover with less than a week left in the season. 

What are the upcoming schedules for the teams involved? 

This is where things get interesting. All three contenders have a pair of three-game series remaining:

Mets: @ CHC, @ MIA 

Reds: vs. PIT, @ MIL 

Diamondbacks: vs. LAD, @ SDP 

The Mets and Reds each must play one of their final two series against a playoff team, while the Diamondbacks will play two. But it’s worth questioning the motivations of every club that’s already clinched a spot in the postseason. 

The Brewers, for example, are three games ahead of the Phillies for the best record in the Majors and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. By the time the Reds travel to Milwaukee this weekend, the Brewers may have nothing left to play for. Similarly, the Dodgers lead the Padres by three games in the NL West. Given the unlikelihood of a change in standings, neither team figures to be exceptionally motivated over the next week. 

Finally, while the Cubs will need another win or two to lock down the No. 4 seed and a home Wild Card Series, that is by far their most likely outcome. At this point, they’re also prepping for October. 

That doesn’t make those games guaranteed wins for any club. But blend it all together, and a situation emerges in which no one’s schedule is demonstrably harder or easier than anyone else’s. 

What are the pitching probables? 

While still unofficial in many cases, these are the probable matchups for the Mets’ final six games: 

Tuesday: LHP David Peterson (9-6, 3.98) vs. RHP Cade Horton (11-4, 2.66) 

Wednesday: RHP Jonah Tong (2-2, 5.94) vs. LHP Matthew Boyd (13-8, 3.20) 

Thursday: RHP Nolan McLean (4-1, 1.27) vs. LHP Shota Imanaga (9-7, 3.37) 

Friday: RHP Brandon Sproat (0-1, 3.94) vs. RHP Sandy Alcantara (10-12, 5.48) 

Saturday: LHP Sean Manaea (2-4, 5.59) vs. RHP Eury Pérez (7-5, 4.20) 

Sunday: LHP David Peterson (9-6, 3.98) vs. RHP Edward Cabrera (7-7, 3.57) 

It’s not an easy slate. Horton is the odds-on NL Rookie of the Year favorite. Boyd and Imanaga are two of the better left-handers in baseball, pitching against a Mets team that has performed markedly worse against lefties (.782 OPS vs. RHP, .691 OPS vs. LHP). 

The Marlins pushed Alcantara back a day, allowing him to make his final start at home while also lining him up against the team they’re chasing in the standings. The 2022 NL Cy Young Award winner held a 7.14 ERA on July 18 in his return from Tommy John surgery. He has since gone 6-3 with a 3.18 ERA. Over his past seven starts, Alcantara has produced an even better 2.70 ERA. 

Pérez and Cabrera are more favorable matchups for the Mets, who blasted each of them for five earned runs, respectively, during a series at Citi Field last month. 

As for the Mets, they’re likely to shuffle their rotation into what’s listed above, which would put McLean and Sproat in line to start Games 1 and 2 of a potential Wild Card Series. Of course, New York has to make it there first. 

Just how unique is all this?  

Extremely. On June 12, the Mets were 21 games above .500. Unless they win at least five of their final six games, they will finish with one of the three worst records of any team in Major League history to climb that high. 

According to the Elias Sports Bureau, the worst of the bunch was Cleveland in 1905, which built a 53-32 record before losing 46 of its final 69 games to finish two games below .500. The 1977 Cubs also peaked at 21 games over .500 before finishing 81-81. 

This type of collapse, in other words, is all but unprecedented. It’s entirely different than the 2007 Mets, who infamously blew a seven-game lead with 17 to play. The ’25 Mets have fallen far more slowly and steadily down the NL standings. 

That said, this story isn’t finished yet. Four to six wins will very likely still get the Mets into the playoffs, if they can find a way to play up to that level. 

Who was the Mets’ winning pitcher in their 2015 NL Championship Series clincher against the Cubs? 

A) Bartolo Colon
B) Jacob deGrom
C) Steven Matz
D) Noah Syndergaard

• Even if the Mets do advance to the playoffs, it’s becoming increasingly difficult to envision Kodai Senga on their postseason roster. He struggled in his last start with Triple-A Syracuse and may have run out of time to show the team he belongs. 

• Edwin Díaz recently sat down with Kait Maniscalco for an episode of MLB’s Game Day Relief series. He talks about everything from his first career save to … an eephus pitch? Check out the interview here.

A) Bartolo Colon

“Big Sexy” recorded four outs in relief of Steven Matz to earn the win in NLCS Game 4 at Wrigley Field.

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