If history is any indication, an arbitration hearing is unlikely to have much impact on the Tigers’ chances of signing Skubal to a contract extension, or re-signing him in free agency next offseason.
Two years ago, the same worries surrounded the Blue Jays in their arbitration hearing with slugger Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who was coming off a 1.8 bWAR season. Their gap was smaller than what the Tigers face with Skubal -- Guerrero filed at $19.9 million, compared with $18.05 million for the Jays -- but the case was closely followed two years out from Guerrero’s potential free agency. An arbitration panel sided with Guerrero, setting a record for highest salary awarded from an arbitration hearing.
The Blue Jays made their case, but did so while remaining mindful of maintaining a good relationship in hopes of keeping the door open for a long-term deal later.
“I don’t argue the case [before the arbitrator],” general manager Ross Atkins later told reporters, including MLB.com Blue Jays beat reporter Keegan Matheson, “and we have very little to do with it other than ... pulling out things that we feel are personal. That was our say in it ...
“A very, very large portion of the work is done by a professional attorney, and then what we work on is ensuring that nothing is personal, and we feel nothing will be taken in a way that is anything other than professional.”
The Blue Jays and Guerrero avoided arbitration the following winter with a one-year, $28.5 million contract ahead of the deadline to exchange numbers. Three months later, the Blue Jays announced a 14-year, $500 million contract extension for Guerrero. That arbitration case was a distant memory.
Yes, the Blue Jays’ arbitration hearing with Guerrero came a year earlier in the process than what the Tigers and Skubal potentially face now. But both Skubal, a member of the MLB Players Association’s executive committee, and the Tigers know the business, and how to separate it from matters on the field.
No, it’s not ideal. There’s a reason the Tigers avoided arbitration cases going to hearings for years, including the $19.75 million salary for David Price in 2015 that remains the record salary for an arbitration-eligible pitcher. But it also doesn’t necessarily mean a severed relationship or an imminent departure.
