Monday, August 18

Welcome to the latest edition of the Phillies Beat Newsletter. This version was written by Paul Casella, who has been based in Philadelphia since 2019 and covers the team alongside Todd Zolecki.

PHILADELPHIA -- Trea Turner is just as baffled as everyone else.

When the Phillies return home from their 10-game road trip on Monday night, Turner will take the field still looking for his first home run of the season at Citizens Bank Park.

Yes, you read that right -- Turner has not hit a home run at home all season. He has hit 12 on the road.

"No idea," Turner said recently.

Manager Rob Thomson is equally confused.

"I have no idea [why] that is," Thomson said.

What started as nothing more than an anomaly is quickly bordering on historic. Obviously, Turner has plenty of time left to hit one out at CBP. He hasn't done so in his first 58 home games this season, but he still has another 23 to make it happen.

If he doesn't, however, Turner is going to find himself in some very rare territory.

The last player to hit at least 12 home runs in a season without a single one coming at home was Jose Cruz for the 1984 Astros. No player has hit at least 13 home runs without one at home since Cleveland's Ken Keltner ... in 1939.

The record for the most home runs in a season hit entirely on the road is 17, held by Goose Goslin of the 1926 Washington Nationals.

"Yeah, weird," Turner said. "I feel like I've flown out to the warning track [at home] probably 20 times or so. But I couldn't tell you an answer. It's kind of weird that I have as many homers as I do on the road -- and then as many as I do at home."

The crazier part is this: If all of Turner's at-bats this season had taken place at Citizens Bank Park, he'd actually have more home runs.  According to Statcast, not only would all 12 of Turner's road homers have been home runs at CBP, three other balls that resulted in flyouts on the road would have left the park at CBP.

In other words, Turner would have 15 home runs if you simply took all of his batted balls and applied them to Citizens Bank Park. That's one of his highest totals of any ballpark.

And yet, he has zero actual home runs in Philadelphia.

So let's dig into it a bit.

Not surprisingly, the majority of Turner's home runs have come on balls he pulls to left field. More surprisingly, Turner actually has a higher pull percentage at home (40.2%) than on the road (36.9%).

What it really boils down to are the pitches on which Turner is doing his damage. Obviously, it's easier to pull pitches that are inside or over the middle of the plate.

For whatever reason, though, Turner has thrived hitting balls on the outer part of the plate ... but only at home. On the road, his four best zones are middle-in, middle-middle, middle-up and up-and-in.

"So I looked at my heat zones for home and away, and away I just have a lot more heat zones," Turner said. "And then at home, I’m just hitting the ball [on the outside part of the plate] really well. I don’t think I’ve ever had that in my career to where -- I’ve always been good at pulling the ball and I take my hits the other way -- but at home it just seems like that outer third is kind of my sweet spot."

To Turner's point, he's still taking his hits at home. He's hitting .296 there, which is actually better than his .287 average on the road. But because he's getting so many of those hits on the outer third at home, he's slugging just .365 at CBP compared to .487 on the road.

But again, it's simply a lot harder to pull those outside pitches with any power.

Turner has barreled only one ball to the pull side all season at CBP -- and, wouldn't you know it, it was a 380-foot flyout to the wall in left-center field. It would have been a home run in five ballparks, per Statcast.

On the road, Turner has barreled eight balls to the pull side -- and six of those have gone for home runs. His xSLG on balls he's pulling on the road is .540. It's just .453 on those same balls at home.

Given all of that -- Turner is still getting his hits at home, so many of his road homers would have been gone at home, etc. -- the Phillies aren't exactly worried about Turner's CBP power outage.

Plus, there's also the fact that the majority of Turner's home runs in his first two seasons with the Phillies came at home. He had 29 at home, compared to just 18 on the road.

"I think it's just coincidence, really, because he's hit home runs at CBP before," Thomson said. "So I don't know what it is."

Maybe Monday is finally the night.

Ryan Howard holds the all-time record for home runs at Citizens Bank Park with 198. Who is second on that list?

A. Bryce Harper

B. Kyle Schwarber

C. Jimmy Rollins

D. Chase Utley

Along with a couple of giveaways (Miller Lite floppy hat on Friday and Trea Turner sunglasses on Sunday) during this homestand, fans will have a chance to adopt a new pet prior to the club’s Friday night game against the Nationals.

The “Phillies Wives” are hosting a “Save a Pet at the Park” event to benefit Pennsylvania SPCA, which will offer the opportunity to not only adopt a dog or cat but also purchase a signed mystery baseball autographed by a Phillies player to benefit the cause. Click here for more information.

D. Chase Utley

Utley hit 129 career home runs at CBP. Harper is next on the list with 113, followed by Rollins (94) and Schwarber (91). Howard holds the record with 198.

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