Friday, July 17

SAN DIEGO -- Nobody knows what the Padres are going to do at the Trade Deadline. Not even A.J. Preller.

That’s not how this usually goes. Sure, Preller, the Padres’ longtime general manager, can seem mercurial. He stuns the baseball world regularly during trade season. But generally speaking, Preller typically knows what he’s going to do well in advance.

Take last year for example. The Padres swung a whopping five trades involving 21 players on Deadline day. According to sources in the Padres’ front office, the players the Padres landed -- Mason Miller chief among them -- were basically the players Preller had been targeting for months. The prospects involved might have changed along the way. But Preller ended up getting his guys.

This year?

Sure, Preller probably has his targets -- presumably a starting pitcher or two and maybe another corner bat. But he’s also planning for other contingencies, perhaps even the possibility of approaching the Deadline as a seller if the Padres’ performance doesn’t turn around. 

Record at the break: 48-48 (third in NL West)
Record at the break last year: 52-44 (second in NL West)
Playoff odds: 11.6% (according to FanGraphs)
Remaining strength of schedule: .500 (13th toughest in MLB)

“We’re going to go into the process open-minded to see what’s there and see what can help our club,” Preller said. “We’re going to go in open-minded about whether it’s acquiring players or looking at it if we have to go another direction. All those things are on the table.”

Let’s read between the lines a little there. “Another direction?” That’s Preller’s way of saying he’s at least open to the possibility of selling if the Padres aren’t in the race at the Aug. 3 Deadline. At the very least, it’s “on the table.” They’re a .500 team right now.

Preller hasn’t approached the Deadline as a seller since 2019 (and would clearly prefer to keep that streak going this year). The 2024 Padres, for example, were 50-50 before reeling off the best second half in the sport, and Preller is optimistic that could happen again.

“We’ve been in this spot a couple of times here in the last few years,” Preller said. “Then, we’ve been able to play really well in August and September. But each year is different.”

There’s no telling what this year will bring. But the next couple of weeks will go a long way. The Padres open the second half with a 10-game road trip. The final two cities on that trip are Atlanta and Miami, teams San Diego is looking to chase down in the playoff race.

“We’re going to be in position to know a lot more here in a couple weeks,” Preller said -- mostly stating the obvious.

Here’s the riddle facing Preller: This isn’t 2023. The Padres reached that Deadline barely on the fringe of the playoff picture. But that roster, on paper, was good enough. You could justify standing pat, then hoping that team would put it all together. (Ultimately, that’s what Preller did. Ultimately, it did not.)

But this year is different. This roster has too many holes. If they’re going to contend, the Padres need reinforcements. But in order to justify the cost of those reinforcements, they first need to prove they can be contenders. Should be a captivating few weeks.

Biggest need: Starting pitching
How much starting pitching? That depends on a few things. First and foremost, the Padres need to figure out what they can expect from Nick Pivetta and Joe Musgrove, who are both expected to return from elbow injuries in August. They also need to size up the rest of their rotation. Michael King is their stalwart, something akin to an ace. Beyond that? Just injuries and question marks. One starting pitcher might not be enough.

Biggest chip: Ethan Salas … or Mason Miller
Preller would obviously prefer to buy at the Deadline. The Padres have a playoff core in place. They’ve got a bullpen built for October. But they need to put themselves in that position first. If they do, their biggest trade chip is top prospect Ethan Salas. Preller seems loath to trade Salas -- but he’s proven before that no prospect is untouchable. But if the Padres fall from contention over the next couple weeks? Things could get awfully interesting, and Miller might find his name in trade rumors for a second straight summer.

Key player for second half: Nick Pivetta
Let’s say the Padres add a pitcher or two at the Deadline. Let’s say they close the gap in the Wild Card race and find themselves in contention. The problems they’ve had in their starting rotation could disappear when Pivetta returns from his elbow injury (and Musgrove after that). Then again, elbow injuries are tricky. Who knows what version of Pivetta the Padres would be getting? If they get the same pitcher as last year, it could set them up nicely for a late run (and, potentially, for a playoff series).

Determining factor: That 10-game road trip

The Padres are always something of a Deadline enigma, but perhaps never more than this year. Because here’s the truth: They can’t really afford to do nothing. They either need to reinforce their roster. Or, if they don’t, they need to sell and recoup some value. Because as currently constructed, there are just a few too many holes, namely in the starting rotation. So how do they decide? Their 10-game trip through Kansas City, Atlanta and Miami to start the second half is going to inform that decision. As Preller said, we’ll know a lot more in a couple weeks.

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