SEATTLE -- The “MVP” chants echoed louder than ever for Cal Raleigh during the Mariners’ homestand this week, and those roars of support at T-Mobile Park are carrying as much credence as ever as the race for the sport’s top individual honor comes down the stretch. That's because Raleigh’s case for the American League MVP Award is as strong as it's been all season -- and at the opportune time. The Mariners’ catcher has been in a two-man race with Aaron Judge virtually all year, but for the first time, Raleigh passed the Yankees star and two-time winner in the third and latest poll from MLB.com, earning 22 of the 37 first-place votes cast from a panel of experts, with Judge earning the other 15. The poll is merely that, far from official and eons away from the finish line. But Raleigh is firmly in the driver’s seat to potentially join Ken Griffey Jr. (1997) and Ichiro Suzuki (2001) as the only Mariners in franchise history to win AL MVP. |
Advanced metrics Part of why the discussion heated up this week was because, also for the first time this season, Raleigh tied Judge atop the wins above replacement leaderboard from FanGraphs, though Judge slightly edged back in front going into Thursday’s off-day (7.5 to 7.3). WAR measures a player's value in all facets by deciphering how many more wins he's worth than a replacement-level player at his same position, and Raleigh’s defense (more on this later) gives him a big boost. WAR is also arguably the leading metric used by MVP voters, a select 30 members of the Baseball Writers' Association of America. The other metric to monitor is wRC+, the all-encompassing number that considers the run-scoring environment of the ballpark and era, where league average is 100. Raleigh has been worth 158 wRC+ (or 58% better than league average), second only to Judge (193). It’s a sizable gap but not astronomical. Where Judge has a more superior edge is in OPS, at 1.107 compared to Raleigh’s .939, which has taken a dip in the second half. The long ball This is where Raleigh’s homers will help him hugely, as he’s already become just the 34th player in history to crush 50, and they’ve helped him soar to the AL RBI lead, too (107). He’s already set the new high mark for the most homers in a single season by a primary catcher, is in range for most by a switch-hitter (54 by Mickey Mantle in 1954) and most in Mariners history (56 by Ken Griffey Jr. in 1997 and 1998), which perhaps carries as much weight as any franchise given Griffey’s pedigree as one of the most iconic players of his era. Raleigh could even challenge Judge’s AL record of 62 in 2022, when he won AL MVP. There’s also something about the never-seen-before awe that can sway MVP voters, too. |
The durability This is where Raleigh has gained significant ground on Judge, who was on the 10-day injured list with a right flexor strain from July 27-Aug. 5 and has been limited to designated hitter duties since. It’s possible that Judge returns to the field before season’s end, but regardless, his overall value has been suppressed for a month now, especially in the head-to-head context against Raleigh, who’s played in all but three of the Mariners’ 134 games this season -- including an AL-high 100 at the sport’s most demanding position. Raleigh is on pace for 8.8 WAR, a feat achieved by only three catchers -- Buster Posey (2012), Johnny Bench (1972) and Mike Piazza (1997), and Posey and Bench each won MVP in those respective years. The playoff push This almost certainly has to happen for Raleigh to have any shot, though the Mariners are in decent position to play into October for the first time since 2022. Seattle entered the off-day two games behind Houston for first place in the AL West and 2 1/2 games behind Boston for the top AL Wild Card spot. The club also had a three-game edge over Kansas City, which is the first team on the outside looking in. Overall, per FanGraphs, the Mariners have 90.4% odds to reach the postseason. |
He’s been the sport’s story of the year The novelty of a new winner could carry some appeal, as Judge and Shohei Ohtani have combined to win each of the past four AL MVP Awards, and going back to 2014, Mike Trout has won three. But the greater staying power could be the sheer fact that Raleigh has arguably been the sport’s biggest story of the season. He shined on the global stage by winning the Home Run Derby, is shattering records at his position and has become one of the faces of the sport -- all in the short span of this season. |
MLB MORNING LINEUP PODCAST |
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Although Eugenio Suárez’s reunion with the Mariners at the Trade Deadline came with storybook-level potential, there was still the natural adjustment period of being part of such a significant midseason transaction. Over his first 19 games back in Seattle, Suárez had a .582 OPS and three homers, though the Mariners remained afloat given the rest of their lineup, going 11-8 in that stretch. But on this past homestand, he really began to heat up, matching his homer total with another three while posting a 1.114 OPS over the 4-2 stretch. “Even if my numbers weren’t right when I got here, it worked out,” Suárez said after Wednesday’s win over the Padres. “I still feel like I’m home. I don’t have to change anything, just be me and enjoy the process and try to help the team win games.” As cliché as his “Good Vibes Only” mantra might be, Suárez’s ability to embody it allows him to be successful. “Geno’s superpower is he’s the same guy every day,” Mariners manager Dan Wilson said. “He is just a steady performer, a steady preparer. He just continues to do what he does that makes him successful.” |
JULIO’S SECOND-HALF SURGE |
Without exception, Rodríguez has been a significantly better hitter after the All-Star break in every year of his career -- and 2025 is no different. Since sitting out the All-Star Game for a mental and physical reset, Rodríguez has been one of the sport’s hottest hitters. He enters Seattle’s upcoming road trip with an .886 OPS since the break, with 11 of his 25 homers in this 38-game span. MLB.com researcher Thomas Harrigan dives into the details on Rodríguez’s second-half surge. Read more » |
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