Wednesday, November 11

SAN DIEGO -- It’s a 19-game sprint to the postseason.

But you know what? Let’s call it 16.

The longer the season goes with the Padres and Diamondbacks still neck and neck in the National League Wild Card race, the more likely it is that the final weekend of the regular season is going to decide the final playoff spot. 

Remember, the Padres and Diamondbacks play three times at Petco Park Sept. 25-27. They’re currently tied in the loss column, with Arizona ahead by half a game. Their season-series tiebreaker still has not been settled. In fact, they’ve split their 10 games so far this season, meaning the winner of that series wins the tiebreaker as well.

Barring something strange, there’s almost certainly only one playoff spot available for these two teams. And they’ll play three games later this month with the winner potentially lined up to claim that spot.

You know what that is? It’s a playoff series. Even if it comes during the regular season.

I think we should reframe our thinking that way: There’s an extra round of the playoffs for the Padres this season, and it begins Sept. 25.

There are a couple caveats, of course.

• Either team could win a whole bunch of games between now and then and essentially earn themselves a bye through that playoff series, if their lead grows to four games or greater.

• A likelier scenario is that one team could make that series easier on itself by building a cushion of at least two games. In that scenario the team with a lead would only need to win one of those three games during the final weekend.

• And, of course, this assumes that none of the handful of contenders from the fringe of the Wild Card race makes a serious run down the stretch. The Marlins, Cardinals and Pirates are longshots, but they’re still alive.

If this comes down to a final-weekend showdown between the Padres and Diamondbacks, it’s time to start thinking of it the same way you’d think of a playoff series.

Meaning, the Padres need to start lining their pitching up for that series. (And maybe they already have? As things currently stand, Michael King could be lined up to start the finale of that series if it’s decisive -- or he could be bumped back to Game 1 of the postseason.)

Obviously, there are plenty of hypotheticals at play. The Padres don’t even know who they’ll have available on their pitching staff. Nick Pivetta returns Monday after missing nearly five months with a flexor strain in his right elbow. Joe Musgrove? TBD. He's still recovering from Tommy John surgery. Anything the Padres get from him down the stretch should be treated as a bonus.

Another injury-related question that might be just as important: What about Jeremiah Estrada and Jason Adam? Adam is ramping up. Estrada is a bit further away. But if they can get one or both of them back … I’m starting to think the San Diego bullpen is deep enough to ride bullpen games through some of the biggest games of the season. Can you cover 18 outs with some combination of Adam, Estrada, Yuki Matsui, Kyle Hart and Bradgley Rodriguez? If so, you’ve gotten to the point where you’re only asking Adrian Morejon and Mason Miller for the last nine.

These games are all massive. The Padres only have 16 of them left to put themselves in the best position possible for that final-weekend showdown.

Who holds the Padres’ record for most home runs by a third baseman in a single season?

A. Ken Caminiti
B. Manny Machado
C. Phil Nevin
D. Gary Sheffield

Coleman Borthwick and Elliot Lascelles, the Padres’ first two picks in this year’s Draft, were on hand at Petco Park over the weekend. Borthwick took in the team’s walk-off victory on Friday night.

“That was something special,” said Borthwick, an imposing right-hander, picked at No. 21 overall. “Watching Mason Miller come in with his walk-out and then later, in the 10th inning, watching the walk-off home run, that was something special. I’ll always remember that.”

Borthwick has yet to pitch in pro ball. He’s been working at the team’s complex in Peoria, Ariz., likely setting up his pro debut next season. Lascelles, meanwhile, couldn’t make it Friday night. He had a game to play.

An infield prospect with outstanding bat-to-ball skills and a good eye, Lascelles is off to an outstanding start at Single-A Lake Elsinore. At just 18 years old, he entered play Sunday hitting .321 with an .835 OPS and six steals.

“It’s been great, I’ve learned a lot,” said Lascelles, who was taken at No. 60 overall. “I haven’t done this much baseball before. So I’ve gotten a lot better. There’s definitely been some challenges, but I’m working through them.”

A Toronto native, Lascelles grew up a Blue Jays fan. Funnily enough, his favorite player as a kid was Ryan Goins, the Padres’ infield coach. A versatile lefty hitter himself, Goins carved himself an impressive eight-year career. The two got to meet on Saturday afternoon.

“I had a T-shirt of him,” Lascelles said. “I’ve definitely taken some inspiration from him. He’s a pretty versatile guy on the infield.”

• Luis Campusano’s walk-off homer on Friday night -- after he’d thrown out three base-stealers -- was a feat not seen since 1961 and a testament to the Padres’ longstanding belief in him.

• Nick Pivetta will make his first start since April on Monday, and the Padres are getting him back at the perfect time.

• Joe Musgrove is “running out of answers” in his attempted return from elbow surgery, and the Padres are mulling a potential role change for him.

• Manny Machado reached the 25-homer milestone for an 11th consecutive full season, the only player in baseball who’s done so.

• The Padres bullpen, already one of the best in baseball, has gotten standout contributions from two unexpected sources this season.

• The Padres went back-to-back-to-back to start their afternoon against Gerrit Cole on Sunday. It’s been nearly four decades since they’ve done that.

• After their early power surge, Michael King continued his ascent toward ace status -- against his former team, no less -- as the Padres clinched a series victory over the Yankees.

The Padres open a three-game series against the Nationals beginning Monday afternoon. On Tuesday night, the Padres will give away a Fernando Tatis Jr. bobblehead -- their first bobblehead featuring their new City Connect uniforms -- to the first 40,000 fans in attendance. You can get tickets and check out the team’s giveaways here.

C. Phil Nevin

Nevin hit 41 homers as the Padres’ third baseman in 2001.

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