Monday, September 21

Welcome back to the Cubs Beat newsletter. Jordan Bastian has covered baseball for MLB.com since 2005, including the Cubs since the 2019 season. MLB.com's Jackson Stone wrote this edition.

The Cubs are as close to securing a trip back to the postseason as possible.

The North Siders need just a single win, or a single D-backs loss, over the regular season’s final week to clinch a spot in the NL Wild Card round.

Who will the Cubs play? And where will those games be played? Those questions won’t be answered until next weekend, most likely.

But with just six games remaining until playoff baseball, who will the Cubs need to step up in order to make a run at the World Series in a National League field filled with strong contenders such as the Brewers, Dodgers and Braves?

Here’s a look at who the Cubs need to do their part to get back to the Fall Classic for the first time since 2016:

Who will step up at the back end of the 'pen?

Who will close games? This is by far the Cubs’ biggest, and potentially most important, question that needs to be answered. Will it be Jacob Webb, who leads the team with nine saves, or will former closer Daniel Palencia, who just spun two scoreless innings in one of his most impressive outings of the year, be able to take that role? Manager Craig Counsell, who has used 14 pitchers to record saves this season, will be tasked with piecing together a bullpen that has limited experience in those situations.

The Cubs need Webb, who spun a scoreless outing in 24 straight appearances from June to August, to get back into form after allowing 11 runs over his past 7 2/3 innings (nine games). If Palencia, who has thrown 6 1/3 straight scoreless innings, can also replicate his success from 2025, it could be a major boost for a club that entered Cincinnati converting just four of its past 12 save opportunities.

Deadline acquisition Ryan Zeferjahn and lefty Ryan Rolison could also play a big factor late in games, but there’s also a secret weapon waiting out in the bullpen …

Can Cabrera be a reliable relief option?

That brings us to Edward Cabrera, who returned from a recurring blister injury on his pitching hand on Sept. 15 in a multi-inning relief role. That will be his job going forward, as the Cubs hope shorter outings can keep him healthy and potentially provide a small uptick in velocity. Cabrera’s first relief experience had mixed results (two runs in 2 1/3 IP), but he came out of the bullpen Sunday and tossed a scoreless inning on just nine pitches.

The best-case scenario of this temporary move to the bullpen? Cabrera turns into this year’s version of the Dodgers’ Roki Sasaki, which would immediately help stabilize the back end of the Cubs’ bullpen. Cabrera’s season hasn’t gone to plan, posting a 5.68 ERA in 15 starts between three stints on the injured list, but he still has a chance to make a significant impact when it matters most.

PCA still doing MVP things in October

Is it really fair to ask more of Pete Crow-Armstrong? After going yard again Sunday, the Cubs slugger is tied with Philadelphia’s Kyle Schwarber for the most home runs in the Major Leagues. He leads Chicago in batting average (.280), homers (45), RBIs (107), stolen bases (38), runs scored (118), on-base percentage (.371), hits (170), triples (eight) and games played (156). Got all that? Simply put, he’s put together one of the most impressive offensive seasons in Cubs history, and he’s not done.

But he will need others to contribute in October. While run production starts with Crow-Armstrong, even if he performs to his NL MVP front-runner ability, he can’t do it all himself. The North Siders have to count on Seiya Suzuki, Dansby Swanson, Ian Happ, Alex Bregman and Michael Busch below him in the lineup to generate scoring chances.

Holmes stepping up as playoff ace

Clay Holmes and Matthew Boyd are the clear No. 1 and No. 2 options for the playoffs, but Counsell hasn’t yet revealed who will pitch in the all-important Game 1. Holmes had a strong August (1.55 ERA in five starts) in his return to the big leagues after missing nearly three months with a right fibula fracture, but he’s allowed 16 ER in just 15 1/3 IP across three starts in September (9.39 ERA).

That’s a worrying trend for a club with limited starting options in the postseason, but Shota Imanaga has stabilized recently after a down stretch in August, and veteran Kevin Gausman can provide multiple innings in whatever role the Cubs need during the postseason.

Crow-Armstrong got one step closer Sunday to becoming just the seventh player in MLB history to record a 40-40 season. The NL MVP front-runner stole his 38th base in the first inning in the Cubs’ 9-1 win over the Reds at Great American Ball Park, now just needing two more with six games to go. Crow-Armstrong also launched his 45th homer to pass Ernie Banks for the most home runs by a Cub in a single season during his age-24 season or younger.

Crow-Armstrong also became just the third player in MLB history with 45+ home runs and 35+ stolen bases in a single season, joining Shohei Ohtani (2024) and Alfonso Soriano (2006). The Cubs slugger can still match or surpass more history during the final week of the season with three games remaining at Wrigley Field, needing just one more homer to tie Hall of Famer Billy Williams for the most (28) by a left-hander at the Friendly Confines in a single season.

With six games left, could Crow-Armstrong possibly hit 50 homers? If he does, he’d become just the third Cub to reach that mark, joining Sammy Sosa (three times) and Hack Wilson. Only Ohtani (2024) has hit 50+ homers and stolen 40+ bases in a single season in MLB history.

Three games against the Marlins on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday will wrap up the Cubs’ home slate. Chicago is still battling San Diego and Philadelphia for the right to host a best-of-three NL Wild Card Series.

Thursday: Fan Appreciation: The first 10,000 early arriving Cubs fans will receive a pennant.

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