Sunday, October 18

Welcome to the latest edition of the Phillies Beat newsletter. This version was written by Paul Casella, who has been based in Philadelphia since 2019 and covers the team alongside Todd Zolecki.

MINNEAPOLIS -- This past week was the first time since early June that the Phillies fluctuated between being in and out of the postseason picture.

They ended the up-and-down stretch tied with the Padres for the final two National League Wild Card spots, sitting a game ahead of the D-backs. (The Phillies own the head-to-head tiebreaker vs. the Padres.)

This week could also have a big impact on those NL Wild Card standings. While they don’t face those two main contenders nipping at their heels, the Phils do host the Marlins and the Cardinals -- the next two teams hanging around the race.

Things can certainly change quickly in these postseason races, especially if the Phillies don’t handle their business against the Marlins or Cardinals this week. But for the sake of this exercise, we’re going to focus on those three clubs – the Phillies, Padres and D-backs – as we break down their respective paths to the postseason and remaining schedules.

For starters, let's take a look at how any potential tiebreakers would play out between these clubs:

- Phillies vs. Padres: Phillies own tiebreaker (won season series, 6-0)
- Phillies vs. D-backs: TBD (D-backs lead season series, 2-1)
- Three-way tie: Things becomes more convoluted in this case, but the initial tiebreaker between these three teams specifically would be their record in head-to-head games involving any of the three teams. In that case, the Phillies -- who can finish no worse than 7-5 in those contests -- would still get one of the two spots, considering the Padres can finish no better than 8-11.

Now, here's take a closer look at what each team has remaining down the stretch.

PHILLIES

Games remaining: 37 (19 home/18 away)
Games vs. teams above .500: 25

Recent performance
Last 10 games: 6-4
Last 20: 11-9
Last 30: 15-15

Key series: at D-backs (Aug. 31-Sept. 2), vs. Braves (Sept.4-7), at Braves (Sept. 11-13), vs. Rays (Sept. 25-27)

There is no question that the most pivotal remaining series on the Phillies' schedule is the three-game set against the D-backs from Aug. 31-Sept. 2. The Phillies need to sweep that series to clinch the head-to-head tiebreaker outright. If they take two out of three to split the season series, the next tiebreaker would be intradivision record – and the D-backs (26-16) currently hold a sizable edge over the Phils (19-17).

That series, though, actually kicks off a key two-week stretch in which the Phillies play 13 straights games against postseason contenders (three vs. D-backs, seven vs. Braves, three vs. Astros). The Phils also face a pair of first-place clubs -- the Brewers and the Rays -- in their final two series of the regular season.

In other words, the Phillies will be tested repeatedly down the stretch in September.

PADRES

Games remaining: 37 (18 home/19 away)
Games vs. teams above .500: 15

Recent performance
Last 10 games: 7-3
Last 20: 15-5
Last 30: 8-2

Key series: vs. Yankees (Sept. 4-6), at Dodgers (Sept. 22-24), vs. D-backs (Sept. 25-27)

The final week of the season could be a thrilling one in the NL Wild Card race. Not only do the Phillies have those two tough matchups mentioned above, but the Padres and D-backs face one another in the final three games of the season. That series could potentially determine not only the fate of those two teams, but perhaps the Phillies as well.

The Padres have the easiest remaining schedule of these three contenders, but they will have to navigate a showdown against the Dodgers in their penultimate series to make sure that last series still means something.

D-BACKS

Games remaining: 37 (18 home/19 away)

Games vs. current postseason teams: 21

Recent performance
Last 10 games: 5-5
Last 20: 11-9
Last 30: 18-12

Key series: vs. Phillies (Aug. 31-Sept. 2), at Padres (Sept. 25-27)

The D-backs are the only one of these three teams that still plays each of the other two -- and both head-to-head tiebreakers still hang in the balance. They’re 2-1 against the Phillies and 5-5 against the Padres.

Those two series will obviously have the most significant impact on the D-backs' postseason chances, but they also have series remaining against the Cubs and four Interleague contenders -- the Red Sox, Astros, Rangers and Yankees.

Referencing the fate of “Moonlight” Graham’s character in “Field of Dreams,” Bryce Harper joked from the movie site on Thursday about “making sure that when I cross over the chalk line, I don’t turn into a normal human being.”

Well, it’s been business as usual for Harper and the Phillies in the two games since departing Iowa, where they rolled to a 7-1 victory over the Twins.

In case you missed any of it, here’s a full rundown of our coverage from the unforgettable day in the middle of a cornfield:

• In the game itself, Aaron Nola continued to look as if he’s turned a corner while Kyle Schwarber smashed a pair of homers into the corn.

• Speaking of corn, Bryce Harper not only had a corn-themed bat, but matching sleeves and cleats to go with it.

• Twenty-six Hall of Famers emerged from the corn to stand alongside both teams on the field in a star-studded pregame ceremony.

• Here’s a look at all of the top moments, both on and off the field.

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