Friday, September 25

Welcome back to the Reds newsletter. This edition was written by MLB.com's Brent Maguire.

Elly De La Cruz and Sal Stewart have enjoyed breakout seasons at the plate. They’re undeniable building blocks and focal points for the Reds for the foreseeable future. 

Yet, the best offensive performance by a Reds hitter so far this year has come from JJ Bleday. Non-tendered by the A’s over the offseason, the Reds snagged Bleday on a one-year deal and have immediately seen that pay dividends, as the 28-year-old has posted a .321/.455/.755 slash line with four home runs in 16 games since making his season debut on April 26. 

While one might think 16 games is too small of a sample to gather too much evidence from, there have been real improvements under the hood that point to Bleday being a completely transformed hitter. 

Here’s a look at how Bleday went from being designated for assignment and non-tendered by the A’s to producing like one of baseball’s top hitters. 

The following numbers are through Thursday's game.

Improved contact quality and faster bat speed

Bleday didn’t enter the season as a zero in the power department, as he hit a combined 44 home runs from 2023-25 and a career-high 20 homers in ‘24. However, the power Bleday has displayed so far this season is above and beyond anything he’s ever shown in his time in professional baseball.

Bleday from 2022-25 vs. 2026

OPS: .701 vs. 1.210

SLG: .394 vs. .755

xwOBA: .301 vs. .486

xBA: .213 vs. .348

xSLG: .373 vs. .676

Barrel rate: 7.9% vs. 15.4%

Avg. exit velocity: 88.3 mph vs. 94 mph

Hard-hit rate: 36.4% vs. 56.4%

There’s real juice behind the power improvements Bleday has made at the dish. His average bat speed is up from 71.7 mph in 2025 to 74.9 mph in 2026. He’s not a qualified hitter yet, but that is one of the largest bat speed improvements of any player this season. 

Bleday has also opened up his batting stance (it was 11 degrees last season and 27 degrees this season). Those changes have led to Bleday becoming one of the most extreme airball hitters in all of baseball. 

A whopping 76.9 percent of Bleday’s batted balls have been in the air (either flyballs, line drives or pop-ups). Of all the hitters with at least 25 batted balls this season, that ranks third only behind Detroit’s Jake Rogers and Hao-Yu Lee.  

Just as notable is the fact that Bleday is pulling 33.3 percent of his batted balls in the air, a top-10 mark among that same group of qualifying hitters. Why is that important? Because pulled balls in the air do the most damage of any type of batted ball hit in a specific direction. Since 2025, the league is collectively slugging 1.212 on pulled airballs. 

To put this all in layman’s terms, Bleday is swinging a faster bat while getting more of his batted balls in the air to the pull side. That’s led to one of the most significant power improvements of any player.

Improved quantity of contact and plate discipline

It’d be one thing if Bleday was selling out for more power at the expense of his plate discipline. That’s not the case, though: He’s improved the amount of contact he’s made too.

After striking out in 26.5 percent of his plate appearances last season, Bleday has nearly shaved that figure in half to 15.1 percent. Bleday is whiffing on a career-low 25.7 percent of his swings after running a personal-high of 29.8 percent last year. 

The combination of improved quality and quantity of contact has led to improved plate discipline. Bleday already owned a good eye at the plate, but he’s seen his walk rate jump from a healthy 10.5 percent clip last year to 21.3 percent this season, which is tied for third-best among all hitters with at least 50 plate appearances. 

You can really pinpoint this by looking at how Bleday is approaching his plate appearances and how pitchers have reacted. Bleday is swinging at the first pitch 35 percent of the time, the highest figure of his career. At the same time, pitchers are also throwing pitches in the zone 46.8 percent of the time, the lowest zone rate of Bleday’s career. 

To improve in one of these key areas -- contact quality, quantity of contact and plate discipline -- is one thing. To do all three of those speaks to the changes Bleday has made. It’s early and it’s possible Bleday is on a career-best heater, but there is real noise in the changes he’s made. 

As a former first-round pick (No. 4 by the Marlins in the 2019 Draft) and a top prospect (he peaked as MLB Pipeline’s No. 20 prospect before the 2021 season), maybe things are finally coming together for Bleday.

• Bleday had a 6-RBI game on Thursday while Chase Burns gave Cincinnati six scoreless innings in a 15-1 rout of the Nats

• The Reds had an early lead on Wednesday, but let it slip away and lost in extras

• Cincinnati signed righty Chris Paddack to join their rotation as Rhett Lowder was placed on the 15-day injured list

• Alfredo Duno (Cincinnati's No. 1 prospect, MLB's No. 26 overall prospect) is staying hot at the plate for High-A Dayton 

• Duno moved up the prospect rankings as part of Wednesday's Top 100 prospects update by MLB Pipeline

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