Welcome to the latest edition of the Phillies Beat newsletter. This version was written MLB.com's Theo DeRosa. |
The Phillies were counting on a bounce-back season from Aaron Nola after a disappointing 2025, but it’s been more of the same for the veteran right-hander. After being tagged for five runs on six hits and four walks in 4 1/3 innings against the White Sox on Sunday, Nola owns a 5.86 ERA in 13 starts this season -- little better than his 6.01 ERA during an injury-plagued 2025 campaign. During the offseason, MLB.com examined how Nola could right the ship in 2026, but apart from staying healthy -- he’s made every turn through the rotation -- those things haven’t come to fruition. Nola’s four-seam fastball has been hit even harder (it’s been one of the least effective pitches in the Majors), and he’s still getting ground balls at only a middling rate. Is there any hope for a midseason turnaround? There is, but that would require Nola to fix a few things up pretty much immediately. And that begins with his four-seamer, which has been the biggest problem for the righty in 2026. |
Despite throwing his heater a tad harder than last season (92.1 mph vs. 91.9 mph), Nola has been seeing worse results, allowing 24 hits in 59 at-bats (.407 batting average) on the pitch. Entering Wednesday, that’s the fourth-highest average on any qualifying pitch in MLB, as well as the third-highest slugging percentage (.864). Nola has tried to limit the damage by throwing the pitch less. His knuckle curve, which has remained quite effective (.194 BA, .296 SLG), has become his go-to offering with a 34.2% usage rate, while the usage rate on his four-seamer has dipped to 25.0%. Last season, the fastball was Nola’s most-used pitch at 30.3%. Against the White Sox, Nola threw 37 knuckle curves, compared to just 17 four-seamers, but three of the six hits he allowed came against the fastball (in just five at-bats). He said his inability to get into pitchers’ counts cost him in the abbreviated outing. “I didn't really get ahead today, and they worked me into pretty deep counts, so that just kind of makes it harder,” Nola said of the outing. “They see more pitches, and there's room for mistakes.” Those mistakes have been more plentiful than usual in 2026, a year in which Nola has posted a career-high 1.45 WHIP and a 23.7% strikeout rate, his lowest since his 2015 debut season. |
Statcast metrics largely back up his struggles. Despite a 4.32 expected ERA that hints at some better luck to come, Nola’s .260 expected batting average, .436 expected slugging percentage and .326 expected wOBA are all career worsts. Additionally, Nola’s 7.7% walk rate is his highest since 2020 (8.0%). The newly implemented ABS system could be part of the reason why, as Nola hasn’t been getting as many borderline calls as he has in years past. That reared its head Sunday, when Chicago’s Colson Montgomery challenged a 3-2 called strike in the fifth inning, overturned the call and later came around to score. “I feel like I knew if he challenged that pitch, it was going to be a ball,” Nola said. “It’s obviously a close pitch right there -- good challenge. But I just kind of feel like I’ve thrown enough of those pitches now that they call strikes and they challenge, and it's a ball.” The poor start followed two solid outings from Nola, both against the Padres. He allowed two runs in six innings with five strikeouts on May 26 at Petco Park, and on June 2 in Philadelphia, he struck out eight over five innings of two-run ball. |
Nola has shown flashes in other starts, too, such as a six-inning scoreless outing on May 4 in Miami. Even with as hard as his fastball has been hit, his other pitches have been hard to square up: Hitters are just 3-for-30 against his changeup (.115) with no extra-base hits. One of Nola’s strengths is his varied arsenal: Even his least common pitch, his cutter, has a 9.3% usage rate. With his curveball, changeup and three different fastballs, it’s hard to predict what Nola might throw next. “With Noles, I think he matches up good with anybody if he's doing his thing,” Phillies manager Don Mattingly said. “If he's locating and using all his pitches and able to use his mix, he matches up with anybody.” More often than not in 2026, that hasn’t been the case for Nola. But the Phillies could use another reliable starter, and Nola could still fill that role if he can turn things around. MLB.com's Paul Casella contributed reporting to this story. |
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Major League Baseball has announced ticket details for the Aug. 13 Field of Dreams game. Registration for the ticket lottery is under way and continues through Thursday, with winners being selected June 17 and the lottery sale taking place June 18. For additional details, visit this link. |
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