Wednesday, October 21

On June 29 of last year, the Cardinals beat the Guardians to move to nine games over .500, pull to within 2 1/2 games of the NL Central-leading Cubs and maintain possession of the third NL Wild Card spot.

That turned out to be the peak of the team’s season. St. Louis lost four in a row after that and 13 of 18, essentially ensuring that a team that had looked like a Trade Deadline buyer at the end of June would, in fact, become a seller. The first fortnight of July proved incredibly clarifying. It was obvious, as the Deadline arrived, what the club was going to do.

(It was a Deadline that proved fruitful, as the Cardinals’ haul from those moves included current starting third baseman Blaze Jordan, as well as four prospects who rank among their Top 30 according to MLB Pipeline.)

This year’s Cardinals team was only five games over .500 on June 29 (which was Monday’s offday) and further out of first place (7 1/2 games behind the Brewers). But, despite a recent dip, there has been considerably more excitement surrounding this young and surprising squad than there was at any time in 2025, and the team still found itself in Wild Card position entering play Wednesday (albeit just a couple of percentage points ahead of the Marlins for the third spot).

While new president of baseball operations Chaim Bloom, manager Oliver Marmol and their staff have made it clear they won’t be sacrificing the long term for the short term, they’ve also made moves that have helped the current roster’s chances of winning, including calling up Jordan and catcher Jimmy Crooks and sending down the struggling Nolan Gorman and Victor Scott II. For all the talk about St. Louis’ future, this is a team that is currently in the thick of the race in a not-particularly-imposing National League Wild Card picture.

Ask the Orioles about looking past current opportunities to focus on theoretical future ones: The future doesn’t always turn out the way you think it’s going to. There’s reason to think these Cardinals should optimize their chances of winning now.

Then again: That’s what we thought last year at this time, too. Even if last year’s team wasn’t as exciting as this year’s, it was still winning. Which is why the next two weeks will tell us everything we need to know about the 2026 Cardinals: We should have all the answers we need by the All-Star break, which arrives July 13.

This is primarily a result of the schedule. Between now and the Midsummer Classic, the Cardinals will play only winning teams -- legitimate contenders who could become postseason opponents. They began a three-game series against the Braves in Atlanta on Tuesday, then head to Wrigley Field to face the Cubs over the weekend. Then it’s back home for FIVE games (including a doubleheader) against the division-leading (and three-time defending division champions) Brewers and three more against the Braves. That’s 14 pivotal games against the best non-Dodgers teams in the National League.

If St. Louis can keep its head above water in those 14 games, then you can make a pretty strong argument that it should resist the temptation to deal away the likes of Lars Nootbaar, Dustin May, JoJo Romero and other veterans at the Aug. 3 Trade Deadline. Even going .500 during that stretch would keep the Cardinals at five games over for the season, with a more manageable schedule coming out of the break, featuring the Diamondbacks, Angels and Reds, before they reach the Deadline with series against the Cubs (at Busch Stadium) and at Toronto.

But if St. Louis’ season stalls out in July as it did a year ago, there will no longer be much of a debate. The focus will return wholly to 2027 and beyond, as it probably should.

There are signs that a 2025-like stumble might be on the horizon. The Cardinals had lost four in a row before salvaging their series finale against the Marlins on Sunday, and, worryingly, their pitching and hitting are potentially in perilous situations. Matthew Liberatore’s tough June (8.27 ERA) highlighted the inability of the rotation to go deep into games, putting even more strain on a competent but still fraying bullpen.

More concerning has been the lineup’s regression. The team scored just three runs in the entire Marlins series, and whole swaths of young hitters are struggling, from Wetherholt to Iván Herrera to Jordan Walker. The offense was something St. Louis fans hoped had been fixed with the demotions of Gorman and Scott II. If it falters again, and the rotation runs out of gas, then another fall out of contention could indeed be on the horizon.

But this has proven to be a resilient team at several points this season, one that has stubbornly resisted being put aside for future considerations. This is not the first time the 2026 Cardinals have been thought not to be a serious contender … and here they still are, right in the thick of the playoff chase. Can they continue to keep their head above water? The next two weeks, heading into the All-Star break, might tell us all we need to know … one way or the other.

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