Thursday, August 06

PHOENIX -- By A.J. Preller’s standards, this was a quiet Trade Deadline. It was extremely productive, nonetheless.

OK, maybe there wasn’t a blockbuster. Maybe the Padres didn’t “win the Deadline” this year. But Preller, the Padres’ perpetually win-now general manager, turned the biggest weakness on his roster into a strength, adding Casey Mize and Robbie Ray to an uncertain starting rotation.

With the Deadline now in the rearview mirror, here are five final thoughts to wrap it all up:

1. This wasn’t a playoff roster on Monday morning; it is now

That’s the crux of it. And to me, that’s what makes these trades worth it. 

The Padres gave up some interesting prospects. I like Kash Mayfield. I think Joniel Hernandez might be really good one day. (Emphasis on “might,” he’s a long way away).

But the impact Ray and Mize will make on this season is undeniable. The Padres did not have a playoff-caliber roster on Monday morning. Sure, they’ve been hanging around the final Wild Card spots, but they weren’t going to piece it together for two more months with that rotation. 

Now? It’s a clear playoff-caliber roster, in my opinion. The rotation is good enough. The bullpen is the best in baseball. The offense is mashing.

There are no guarantees. Just look at last night for example. There were obviously mitigating circumstances, but Mize struggled in his Padres debut. You’ve got to play the games. Maybe it doesn’t work out. Injuries happen. Randomness happens. Baseball is weird. But on paper, this looks like a playoff team -- and a potentially scary playoff team, too. That’s why you make these trades.

2. Preller showed some restraint

I had a hunch this might be a straightforward Deadline -- a Deadline in which the Padres addressed their biggest needs but didn’t go over the top.

But I wasn’t going to believe it until I saw it. Because, with Preller, you never know.

In the end, I think Preller threaded the needle nicely. He got what he needed. But he didn’t go overboard. For one, he hung onto top prospect Ethan Salas (No. 30 overall, per MLB Pipeline), who is in the midst of an excellent season.

I think that was always likely. There wasn’t a Mason Miller out there. But it goes beyond that. The Padres gave up some good prospects. They also kept some very good prospects -- and maintained a foundation to build upon. (Or to trade away this winter. Who knows?)

3. The offense needs to step up

In the end, Preller put an awful lot of faith in this offense. I think he had good reason to do so. The Padres had the worst offense in baseball for the season’s first 2 1/2 months. But they’ve been a top-five offense since mid-June.

When push came to shove, Preller allocated all his resources toward getting the highest-caliber starting pitchers he could. Those resources could have easily been spread around a bit more -- the Padres could’ve added a left-handed bat. They were certainly interested in doing so.

Instead, Preller asked the current group of Padres hitters to carry the offense. Given the way they’ve been hitting for two months, I think that’s a reasonable decision.

4. I have no idea what happens beyond this year in the rotation

If I have one gripe about the Deadline, this is it. 

I think Deadline day was a very productive day for the 2026 Padres. Beyond 2026? I have no idea. 

So many of Preller’s previous Deadline frenzies landed players with multiple years of team control. This one was 2026-centric. Which, ultimately, kept the costs down. But the future rotation is on shaky ground.

Ray and Mize are free agents after the season. Separately, Michael King and Nick Pivetta can opt out of their contracts. The Padres have dealt so many of their upper-level starters in the past. It’s going to be very interesting to see how Preller reinforces the rotation this winter.

But that’s a question for another day.

5. The Padres have set themselves up to handle anything with Pivetta and Musgrove

Pivetta seems to be doing OK after his injury scare Tuesday. He threw 20-30 additional pitches in a bullpen later that day, then played catch Wednesday.

Still, when I saw Pivetta walk off that mound, my mind instantly went to 2021. The Padres did not reinforce their rotation at the Deadline, when it desperately needed it. A day later, Chris Paddack was injured during a bullpen session. Everything crumbled from there.

This was not that. Because the Padres have at least set themselves up to withstand any potential outcome with Pivetta and Joe Musgrove (both of whom are rehabbing elbow injuries). Ideally, both return, and you’ve got a fearsome five-deep rotation.

But if their recoveries hit any snags -- or if they’re not themselves when they come back -- the Padres are still in a decent position. Michael King-Robbie Ray-Casey Mize is a perfectly adequate Wild Card Series rotation, especially with the bullpen the Padres have behind them.

Before Casey Mize last night, who is the most recent No. 1 overall Draft pick to play for the Padres?

A. Adrián González

B. Phil Nevin

C. Drew Pomeranz

D. Justin Upton

• If Randy Vásquez is dominating like this, the Padres might entirely scrap their plans for bullpen games.
• No Soto or Miller. No major blockbusters. It was still a very on-brand Trade Deadline for Preller and the persistently win-now Padres.

• After a whirlwind week, Mize seriously struggled in his debut.

• Pivetta walked off the mound in Lake Elsinore with an apparent injury. The Padres are hopeful it’s not as serious as it could’ve been.

The Padres return to Petco Park for a six-game homestand against the Astros and Brewers beginning Friday night. Individual game tickets are available here. And next Monday, the Padres will give away a superhero pocket tee, featuring Jackson Merrill and Fernando Tatis Jr., to the first 40,000 fans.

D. Justin Upton

Upton, the No. 1 overall pick by the Diamondbacks in 2005, played for the Padres in 2015.

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