Wednesday, September 23

ANAHEIM -- On some level, I'm sure Mason Miller knows that he’s the most dominant pitcher in baseball right now, in the middle of one of the most dominant stretches by any pitcher ever.

But he seems to be doing his best to avoid acknowledging it. Which is a pretty good look into how Miller operates. And, taking that a step further, a big part of the reason he’s been so dominant and is now closing in on the Padres' record scoreless streak.

“Success is a scary place sometimes,” Miller said Sunday after he nailed down a dramatic Padres victory at Angel Stadium. “[It's] where you get complacent.”

I thought that was a pretty good summation of how Miller has put himself on the verge of making Padres history: He isn't satisfied with his dominance.

Sure, he’s got the stuff -- the triple-digit fastball and the wipeout slider. But you don’t throw 32 2/3 consecutive scoreless innings -- plus a few more in the postseason and at the World Baseball Classic -- without an extraordinary mindset.

With one more scoreless inning, Miller would equal Cla Meredith for the longest scoreless streak in franchise history. He hasn’t allowed a run since last August, his second appearance as a Padre. 

It’s the streak everyone in San Diego -- and much of the baseball world -- is talking about. And Miller is wondering if it should even count.

“It seems disconnected to me, over the course of two seasons,” Miller said. “This season is off to a good start. I finished last season strong. The two aren’t necessarily connected.”

Maybe he’s got a point. I’m not sure it matters. The fact is, Miller has been practically untouchable since the Padres acquired him from the A’s at the Trade Deadline. This year, he’s taken that dominance up a notch.

Thirty-eight hitters have come to the plate against Miller this season. He’s punched out 27 of them. Only four have reached base -- two walks and two singles.

Last week, I wondered aloud if teams should stop swinging altogether when they’re facing Miller down by multiple runs. His stuff is so nasty, you’re probably not going to hit it. Obviously, you don't let Miller know that you're not going to swing. But if you need a baserunner to bring the tying run to the plate … is it possible that the optimal strategy might actually be to stop swinging and hope for a walk? Like, mathematically, is that the right play?

Someone smarter than me can figure that out. But two days later, the Mariners basically tried it. At least, with two strikes, they kept their bats on their shoulders. Entering that outing, Miller had recorded 19 consecutive strikeouts swinging. Then, on Thursday, he proceeded to strike out all three Mariners hitters -- looking.

That’s scary stuff for opposing hitters. It tells us Miller is getting … better. He’s always had two of the best pitches in the sport. He hasn’t always been able to locate them.

“Historically, when I get beat, it’s after a walk or self-inflicted damage,” Miller said. “I’m just trying to come at guys and force them to make decisions and swings and not put myself in bad counts.”

If he keeps it up, Miller is going to shatter records. And not merely franchise records. Since he was dealt to the Padres at the Trade Deadline last summer, Miller has faced 144 hitters in competitive settings, including the postseason and the World Baseball Classic.

He has 90 strikeouts.

That is ridiculous.

In 2019, Kirby Yates turned in one of the best relief seasons in Padres history -- probably the best relief season I’ve covered. (And, while my tenure doesn't quite date back to Trevor Hoffman, I've covered some good ones). Yates struck out 41.6% of opposing hitters, which stands as the current franchise record for any pitcher with a reasonable sample.

This season, Miller is at 71.1%.

Here's why it matters: If you're striking out seven out of every 10 hitters, there's no room for variance. No seeing-eye singles. No batted-ball luck or defensive breakdowns. Seventy percent of the time, it works every time. It's precisely what you want from a back-end reliever working with a lead: certainty.

We’ve never seen anything as certain as this. The one pitcher closest to that number was then-Brewer Devin Williams during the COVID-shortened 2020 season. And Williams’ strikeout rate was still almost 20% lower than Miller’s.

On multiple occasions, manager Craig Stammen has praised Miller’s consistency, and he did so again on Sunday, calling Miller, “Elite and at the top of his game almost every single time.”

“That’s not easy to do,” said Stammen, a former reliever himself. “It’s almost impossible.”

Miller would agree that it's impossible. Because he disagrees that he's been on top of his game every time. He says he has good outings and bad outings. (His standard is maybe just a little different.) He still wants to learn from the bad ones.

Miller is clearly his own biggest critic. He’s, honestly, maybe his only critic.

“I’m still figuring it out,” Miller said. “It’s still everyday adjustments.”

If Miller is going to pass Meredith and claim the top spot in franchise history, he’s probably going to have to do it the hard way. The Padres’ next two road series come in the high altitude of Coors Field and the higher altitude of Mexico City. Miller says he thinks his stuff plays well at altitude, relatively speaking. Velocity is velocity, no matter where you throw it. Still, those are the two toughest pitching environments the Padres will face all season.

If Miller returns to Petco Park a week from tonight with his scoreless streak intact … who knows when he'll allow another run?

Who is the Padres' all-time hits leader at Coors Field?

A. Adrián González
B. Ryan Klesko
C. Manny Machado
D. Wil Myers

• The Padres polished off a fifth straight series win on Sunday. They're the hottest team in baseball, winning "with contributions from everybody on the whole entire roster."

• Miller took another step toward Padres history on Sunday. Fernando Tatis Jr. said it best. Get a late lead? "Game over."

• The Padres continue to climb MLB.com's power rankings (and rightly so, I might add).

• Jackson Merrill robbed ANOTHER home run on Saturday, and the Padres won it late -- just like they're supposed to with a roster like this one.

• Jake Cronenworth took a fastball to the chin on Saturday. Literally. He stayed in the game. (And Stammen offered an amusing justification for keeping him in.)

When the Padres return from their (high-altitude) road trip through Denver and Mexico City, they’ve got an all-Chicago homestand on deck. They’ll play three games against the Cubs, April 27-29, then three more against the White Sox May 1-3.

On Tuesday, April 28, the Padres are giving away a waffle beanie to the first 40,000 fans in attendance at Petco Park.

D. Wil Myers

Myers racked up 73 hits at Coors Field as a Padre, seven ahead of Machado in second.

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