Monday, August 18

How do I know that one Padres-Dodgers series after the Trade Deadline isn’t actually going to determine all that much?

Well, the Padres eliminated the Dodgers in the 2022 playoffs. L.A. returned the favor in ‘24. Does anyone remember what happened when those teams met shortly after the Deadline in each of those two seasons?

I do. I remember the Padres being swept at Dodger Stadium in August 2022 and the bleak feeling in the clubhouse afterward. I remember San Diego taking both games at Petco Park last summer and the feeling of possibility. Really, what did either of those series mean in the end?

That’s not to say this wasn’t a rough weekend for the Padres in Los Angeles. It was a significant setback in their push for the National League West title. But it also won’t determine their season (especially with three games against the Dodgers looming next weekend as well).

Nonetheless, it wasn’t particularly pretty this weekend in L.A. Here are seven quick takeaways:

1. We’ll start with the big question: What happened? 

I don’t think the losses were the concerning part. I think a game like Saturday’s -- in which the Padres allowed free baserunners, ran into outs and conceded runs on defense -- was more concerning. That’s not who they’ve been. For that version to show up in a Dodgers series -- it’s just not ideal.

2. The rotation has major question marks. 

Nick Pivetta has been excellent all year. But behind him, whom do the Padres trust in October at this point? They’d trust a healthy Michael King, but they haven’t had that since May. (On Friday, King landed back on the IL with left knee inflammation.) Meanwhile, the inconsistencies of Dylan Cease and Yu Darvish were on full display over the weekend. Clearly, the most trustworthy aspect of this Padres pitching staff is its bullpen.

3. And this bullpen can be deployed in so many different ways. 

It backfired on Sunday when Mookie Betts took Robert Suarez deep in the game’s decisive moment. But the fact that the Padres have both Suarez and Mason Miller allowed them to use Suarez early. They went to All-Star setup man Jason Adam starting the fifth inning while trailing by two. They used Adrian Morejon and Jeremiah Estrada (twice) in minus situations. (They would’ve used Suarez while trailing, too, if the seventh inning had gotten as far as Betts.) There’s no other team in baseball that can use its high-leverage arms so aggressively. It’ll pay major dividends come October.

4. What do the Padres do against lefties? 

Luis Arraez had another three-hit day on Sunday facing righties Tyler Glasnow and Blake Treinen. But he has struggled all year against lefties -- yet he continues to bat second. Manager Mike Shildt clearly has a set-it-and-forget-it preference for his lineup, and I think that’s mostly fine throughout a long summer. But come crunch time, it’ll make more sense to bat Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado in the top two spots. Arraez, given his splits, should probably be hitting somewhere in the bottom half against left-handed pitching.

5. And what about Ryan O’Hearn? 

The Padres gave up a lot to get O’Hearn and Ramón Laureano from Baltimore. Laureano is playing every day, and he’s mashing. O’Hearn, meanwhile, has been sitting against left-handers -- despite solid numbers against them this season. He hit a clutch double against Dodgers lefty Anthony Banda on Sunday. With Jackson Merrill temporarily hobbled by a balky ankle, here’s guessing O’Hearn starts against Giants lefty Robbie Ray tonight. His opportunity ought to extend beyond that.

6. Speaking of Laureano … what an acquisition.

He’s batting .339 with a 1.082 OPS in 15 games with the Padres. He also has an incredibly team-friendly $6.5 million team option for 2026. To me, that has been one underappreciated aspect of the Padres’ Trade Deadline. They basically managed to take care of two of their biggest offseason questions three months ahead of time. Laureano will almost certainly be their Opening Day left fielder, with Freddy Fermin starting behind the plate.

7. Was this the Padres’ last L.A. trip this year? 

They’ve faced the Dodgers in the NL Division Series three times in the past five seasons. But with a cursory glance at the standings, that seems unlikely. The Brewers are running away with the top spot in the NL. The winner of the West seems destined for the second or third seed. The runner-up, meanwhile, is well positioned to finish fourth or fifth. For the first time in the current edition of this rivalry, the Padres and Dodgers could enter the postseason on opposite sides of the bracket -- making an October rematch less likely. Then again, if it does happen, a seven-game NL Championship Series would be epic.

Who is the Padres’ all-time leader in home runs against NL West opposition?
 
A. Nate Colbert
B. Manny Machado
C. Wil Myers
D. Dave Winfield

• This weekend wasn’t the end of the Padres’ NL West hopes. But it was certainly a blow -- and a missed opportunity.

• The Padres did their best to build a roster without flaws at the Deadline. But cracks have nonetheless emerged in their starting rotation. It’ll be a critical month ahead for that group.

• You probably won’t ever know what it feels like to run into a railing chasing a foul ball. But courtesy of Freddy Fermin -- and some up-close camerawork -- you got a pretty good idea of it Friday night. (Spoiler: It hurts.)

This is the homestand I’ve had circled on my calendar all year. The Padres host the Giants for four games beginning tonight at Petco Park, then play three more against the Dodgers beginning Friday night. Those games might go a long way toward deciding the National League West.

Something else to monitor: Even beyond the NL West, the tiebreaker after head-to-head record is divisional record. That applies even with teams outside the division. The Padres split their six games against the Phillies, so if they were to end up tied for a bye, it would come down to divisional record. It should go without saying: these divisional games are critical.

Meanwhile, Wednesday’s game features a Michael King bobblehead giveaway for the first 40,000 fans in attendance. A handful of tickets remain available.

PADRES.TV is back for the 2025 season, allowing fans to stream regular-season games in the San Diego area without blackouts. That offer -- available now for $34.99 or $19.99 per month -- is only for fans in the Padres’ home TV territory and a separate service from the MLB.TV out-of-market package.

A. Nate Colbert
 
Colbert hit 94 home runs against opponents in the NL West -- then a six-team division. Against the current division -- which was realigned in 1994 -- Myers leads all Padres with 78 home runs.

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