Thursday, June 19

ATLANTA -- When the Braves ended their season-opening 0-7 road trip, it felt like losing seven games was the third-worst thing that had happened. They also lost All-Star starter Reynaldo López to a shoulder injury and their leadoff hitter/left fielder Jurickson Profar to an 80-game suspension.

Four weeks later, the Braves have dealt with those personnel losses effectively enough to come within two wins of a .500 record. The Braves have the National League’s second-best record (14-9) going back to April 4, their first home game. That’s pretty impressive when you account for the fact Spencer Strider and López have both made just one start.

Speaking of the injury front, the Braves haven’t set a specific timetable for Ronald Acuña Jr.’s return. But the 2023 NL MVP could return to Atlanta’s lineup by the end of May. Though possibly still a few weeks away, this provides another reason to be optimistic about where the Braves are heading.

Here are a few thoughts heading into this weekend’s key series against the Dodgers:

1) Alex Verdugo has hit .341 and produced a .396 on-base percentage through his first 10 games for the Braves. His presence has filled the gaping hole that existed in the leadoff spot. He’s also a better defensive player than Profar. But it’s too early to start wondering if there will be a lineup spot for Profar when he returns in July, right? Or is it?

2) Scott Blewett has already made a season-high three pre-DFA appearances for the Braves. The reliever was designated for assignment after making just two appearances for both the Orioles and Twins this year. He’s already given the Braves some valuable innings, and his Baseball Savant page indicates his success might not be a fluke.

3) Unfortunately for Raisel Iglesias, his Baseball Savant page shows his struggles haven’t been a fluke or a product of bad luck. Expected weighted on-base average uses quality of contact, strikeouts and walks to predict the results a hitter or pitcher would get on average, removing the variables of defense and luck. The Braves closer has a .439 xwOBA. This ranks 367th out of 371 qualified pitchers. He has been the bullpen’s weakest link. 

4) Critics might want to see him do it against a better lineup. But Chris Sale finally looked like himself as he notched 24 swings and misses in Wednesday’s 2-1 loss to the Rockies. That’s more than he collected in any game during last year’s Cy Young Award-winning season. Colorado whiffed with 18 of 27 swings against the southpaw’s slider. If you look at what he did against the D-backs and Rockies over the past week, you have to feel good about next week’s start against the Reds.

5) Sale had 11 strikeouts in a 1-0 loss to a White Sox team that lost 121 games last year. He had 10 strikeouts on Wednesday against a Rockies team seemingly destined for a similar loss total. And yet, we try to make sense of a sport that loves to be incredibly unpredictable.

6) Ozzie Albies has a .280 xwOBA.  That ranks second-worst among the Braves’ qualified hitters, sitting below the recently demoted Jarred Kelenic (.297) and above only Nick Allen (.273). Allen is tied for first among all MLB shortstops with +5 outs above average. Albies ranks 17th among qualified second basemen with 0 OAA. The range is still there, but the arm strength isn’t coming back. So there’s little value beyond the bat. This is why Albies has to hope this was just a rough first month at the plate.

7) Kelenic’s demotion to Triple-A Gwinnett had nothing to do with him pimping what became a single against the Twins on April 19. He has struggled offensively and there’s simply no room for him now that Eli White has been given a chance to play every day. Maybe Kelenic figures it out while playing every day with Gwinnett. Maybe he doesn’t. But it’s far too early to completely give up on the 25-year-old outfielder.

8) Drake Baldwin has 17 plate appearances over the past 12 games. The backup catcher is still getting the occasional pinch-hit appearance, and we haven’t seen any adverse effects yet. But the Braves will have to continue evaluating this situation with the understanding that a lack of plate appearances this year could have an adverse effect in future seasons for the top prospect.

9) The Braves will be facing Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who has posted a 1.06 ERA through his first six starts, on Friday. Remember what I said about this sport that loves to be unpredictable?  

Who holds the Braves’ record for most saves since Craig Kimbrel was traded on the eve of the 2015 season? 

A. Will Smith

B. Raisel Iglesias

C. Arodys Vizcaíno

D. Jim Johnson

Everyone would love to see Kimbrel make a successful comeback bid and become a key reliever within Atlanta’s bullpen this year. But Kimbrel will need to build arm strength and create confidence he would be effective if brought to the Major League level. 

Kimbrel has recorded three strikeouts and issued two walks while allowing two runs over four innings for Gwinnett. His four-seam fastball averaged 91.7 mph on April 23 and 92.3 mph the next night. He seemed to be moving in the right direction when this pitch averaged 93.3 mph on Sunday. But the average fell back to 91.4 mph on Wednesday, when 11 of his 15 pitches were four-seamers. 

Kimbrel holds the Braves’ record with 186 saves. It would be nice to hear Welcome to the Jungle blare again in Atlanta. But it’s too early to tell whether this homecoming will definitely be realized. 

B) Iglesias

Iglesias has collected 73 saves for the Braves. Johnson ranks second with 51 and Vizcaíno is third with 50. Smith ranks fourth with 42.   

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