ATLANTA -- Seeing Austin Riley finally hit his first home run was nice, but … “The double to right-center, I liked more than the homer, because that’s Riley right there,” Braves pitcher Bryce Elder said. “I’ve watched him since I came up, and when he starts driving balls to right-center, look out.” Riley certainly had reason to smile after he distanced himself from some early season frustrations during Wednesday night’s 6-3 win over the Marlins. He ended his 18-game homerless streak to begin the season with a 400-foot pull shot in the sixth inning. He followed that with an opposite-field double that hit high off Truist Park’s tall brick wall in right. And then just to show off, Riley made the clubhouse putt given to the player of the game after every Braves win. But what you really want to know is, which of these moments was Riley’s favorite of the night? “The opposite-field double,” Riley said without hesitation. Why? “It’s just about staying on the pitch,” Riley said. “I think the last year, year and a half, I was pulling a lot more balls. When I’m at my best, I’m driving the ball to the big part of the field.” |
Riley has a .645 OPS through this season’s first 19 games. But he’s far from the only Braves player who has struggled. Ronald Acuña Jr. (.725 OPS), Michael Harris II (.601 OPS) and Mike Yastrzemski (.580 OPS) have also experienced their own slow starts. Still, Atlanta exited the Marlins series with a 12-7 record, MLB’s highest run total (106) entering Thursday and the distinction of being the only team that has yet to lose a series. A look at the difference between Weighted On-base Average (wOBA) and Expected Weighted On-base Average (xwOBA) shows Harris has been one of the hardest-luck players thus far. Instead of just providing a player credit for reaching safely like on-base percentage, wOBA gives value to how that player reached base. In other words, a double is worth more than a single, which has a higher value than a walk. The expected version of this stat uses quality of contact to assign values to expected outcomes of balls in play. Harris ranks 208th among 280 qualified players with a .271 wOBA, but he ranks 66th with a .364 xwOBA. The difference of .093 between these two numbers is the eighth highest among all players and the second-highest among players with a .360 xwOBA or higher. |
Though Harris has just two home runs and two stolen bases thus far, I’m still feeling good about this being the year he goes 30-30. I think you’ll see that homer total rise quickly over the next couple weeks. He has a .339 slugging percentage and a .549 expected slugging pct. His barrel rate and hard-hit rates are both up and with a little more than 10 percent of the season he’s already drawn three walks, which is almost 20 percent of last year’s total (16). As for Yastrzemski, it’s hard to find any tough luck in his expected stats. His xwOBA is lower than his wOBA and the same goes for his xSLG. Riley’s expected stats are slightly better than his actual production, and Wednesday’s plate appearances gave his manager further reason to be excited about what his third baseman might do over the next few weeks. “We all know when you're hitting the ball hard the other way, you're doing a lot of things, right?” Weiss said. “So really good signs from Riley. I think Yaz is coming, too. Yeah, it's a good offense, especially when we get everyone rolling.” If nothing else, seeing the offense thrive as some of the stars have slumbered these first few weeks has created reason to be excited about the lineup depth, which should become stronger once Sean Murphy and Ha-Seong Kim return from the injured list. |
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Are the Braves better than they would have been with Jurickson Profar? Well, I’m pretty sure Profar wouldn’t have had the impact Dominic Smith has had so far. It’s been a delight to see Smith thrive and create a couple big moments already. But it’s also been a pleasure to get to know him. He’s certainly quickly endeared himself to both fans and teammates. And we likely wouldn’t have gotten to know him had Profar not done what he did. Sean Murphy could be ready to return from the injured list at some point during the next homestand. Should Jonah Heim or Kyle Farmer be the odd man out? Heim has caught a few shutouts, but he’s not going to hit. I’m trying not to be heavily influenced by his slow, tentative reaction to Jorge Soler charging the mound. But at the same time, even though we know Drake Baldwin will DH when he’s not catching, is carrying a third catcher more valuable than carrying Farmer, who could put the gear on if necessary? |
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Who has hit the most home runs against the Phillies going back to the start of 2022? A. Matt Olson B. Pete Alonso C. Marcell Ozuna D. Francisco Lindor |
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A. Matt Olson Olson has hit 16 homers against the Phillies since he joined the Braves before the 2022 season. Alonso ranks second with 11. Ozuna and Brandon Nimmo are tied with 10. Lindor and Riley have both hit nine and Harris has hit eight. |
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