Monday, July 27

Seven days until the Trade Deadline. Here are seven Padres-related thoughts ahead of that Deadline (Aug. 3 at 3 p.m. PT):

1. I don’t think the weekend changed things as much as this offense changed things. Yes, the Padres basically doubled their playoff odds with a sweep of the Marlins (now somewhere around 15%, according to FanGraphs). San Diego was always going to have to win to assert itself as a buyer. But it’s not merely the winning. It’s the way these Padres are winning. They’re hitting. (Gasp!) At the start of the season, I thought this was a top-10 offense. Then, for the first 2 1/2 months, it was literally the worst offense in baseball. If the offense were still struggling, there would be no way to justify buying, even with this record (53-53 entering Monday). There would be too many major needs and not enough resources. But now? Now that they've been a top 5-10 offense since mid-June? I still think it’s still worth looking for a bench bat. But you could certainly make a case for leaving the offense as is -- then allocating all of your resources to the pitching side.

2. There’s a tricky question of quality versus quantity in the Padres’ rotation pursuit. If the Padres decide they’re buying, their clearest need is starting pitching. You could make the case (pretty easily) that it’s both their biggest and second-biggest need. But here’s the question: Would the Padres rather have one front-of-the-rotation type starter? Or multiple mid-to-back-end type starters? Given what we know about general manager A.J Preller, he likes to swing big. But based on the current roster construction, even if you’re adding two No. 4-type starters -- that’s a major upgrade from what’s already on hand. And it might be the best way to bridge the gap to the returns of Nick Pivetta and Joe Musgrove.

3. The Padres should listen on Mason Miller -- and then politely decline. Unless they get completely blown away by an offer. I certainly understand the urge to trade him. Preller could revamp the entire outlook of his future rotation by trading for a couple controllable young starters. But Miller has three more seasons of control. Even if the Padres are selling, they’re going to want to contend next year. At which point, Miller goes back to being an immensely valuable weapon at the back end of the bullpen. There are other ways the Padres can acquire young starters for the future, whether it’s at this Deadline or in the offseason. 

4. I’m less opposed to dealing Adrian Morejon. He’s a free agent after the season, and likely to fetch a significant haul. Remember 2023, when the Padres hung onto Josh Hader, the best lefty reliever in the game, before he walked during the offseason? I think it’s pretty similar, even if Morejon doesn’t quite have that track record.

5. But if you’re going to deal Morejon … do it right. Make sure it fits with the rest of the Deadline strategy. If the Padres are going to trade Morejon, I’d rather they just admit that they’re selling at that point. The idea of trading Morejon, then buying elsewhere, has been bandied about. I guess it makes sense on some level … if the goal is to merely sneak into the final Wild Card spot. But what about once you get there? The Padres’ biggest October strength is their Morejon/Miller combo. They’re two of the 10 best relievers in baseball and can shorten games to five or six innings. Not to mention, think of all the lefty hitters the Padres could face come October. (Schwarber. Harper. Olson. Baldwin. Ohtani. Freeman. Crow-Armstrong. I could keep going.) The way I see it, trading Morejon lowers the Padres’ October ceiling in a big way.

6. The schedule is funny. The Deadline is next Monday afternoon. That night, the Padres begin a four-game series against the Diamondbacks. Amid a tightly packed NL Wild Card race, I’ve always viewed the D-backs as the barometer -- the team the Padres need to overtake to reach the postseason. And they play immediately after the Deadline. There’s a world in which the Padres sell, then win that series and suddenly they’re in playoff position, wishing they’d bought. There’s another world in which the Padres buy, then lose that series, and suddenly wish they’d sold. Life comes at you fast. It’ll be one of the biggest series of the year -- and both teams might have entirely reshaped rosters for it.

7. Whatever happens in the next week, this isn't the year to go all in. Those Deadlines in 2020, '22, '24 and '25 were fun. But those teams were in much better shape pre-Deadline. The risk was at least justifiable. This year? I think there's a perfectly reasonable case for buying. (I made it here last week!) You add a starter or two. Maybe a bat. Then, you roll the dice on the health of Pivetta and Musgrove and you hope the offense's recent surge is sustainable. You trade a couple good (but not great) prospects to achieve those aims. But you don't move No. 1 prospect Ethan Salas. You don't move multiple top 5 prospects. These 2026 Padres, who spent most of the season struggling to put it all together, haven't earned that. No matter what happens over the next week against the Rockies and Giants. 

Fernando Tatis Jr. has already notched his fourth career 25-steal season. Who is the only Padre with more 25-steal seasons?

A. Tony Gwynn

B. Gene Richards

C. Will Venable

D. Alan Wiggins

• The Padres have shaken up their pitching strategy in a major way. It’s the best they can do with what they’ve got -- “until we get some reinforcements.”

• "Best flight of the year," after a sweep of the Marlins. And perhaps the best series the Padres have played all year. 

• Musgrove and Pivetta took a major step toward a return on Friday. Here’s what it means for the Padres’ rotation.

• If the Padres are going to make one final surge before the Deadline, Jackson Merrill is going to play a key role. In fact, he already is.

• The Padres signed their first-round pick to a bonus slightly under his slot’s value. (The deadline to sign Draft picks is today.)

It’s a critical homestand for the Padres in their push for a Wild Card spot. They’ll host the Rockies for a two-game series beginning Tuesday, followed by a four-game series against the Giants beginning Thursday.

On Tuesday, the Padres will give away a slick brown and gold poncho to the first 40,000 fans in attendance. On Thursday, they’ll give away a bucket hat to the first 40,000 fans as well -- a reversible bucket hat that flips between home and away. Click here for tickets and more details. 

A. Tony Gwynn

Gwynn stole 33 bags in 1984, then 25-plus in every season from 1986-89, including a whopping 56 during his legendary 1987 season.

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