In the coming days, the Padres are going to secure their place in the postseason. Might even happen this weekend in Chicago, where they have three games against the last-place White Sox.
Sure, there's a National League West title on the line. But those hopes are fading fast, and even if the Padres can overtake the Dodgers, they're still headed for a Wild Card Series. The Brewers and Phillies have all but locked up the two first-round byes.
Time to start looking toward October -- so here are six October-related thoughts.
1. The relief roles are clear
You can make an argument that, at the moment, Robert Suarez is the Padres' third best reliever. I still think he's the obvious choice at closer. Why? Because he's done it all year and, clearly, has the temperament for the ninth.
But more importantly, come playoff time, all of these big arms are going to pitch in practically every game anyway. If you task Suarez with covering the ninth, you can pick and choose a specific high leverage lane for Mason Miller. And you leave the big lefty spots for Adrian Morejon -- with Jeremiah Estrada covering what's left.
Can you cover 12 outs that way on a nightly basis? With all the off-days in the postseason, absolutely you can. In fact, you can almost certainly cover a lot more than that... |
2. Miller Time The Padres got Miller for precisely these moments. Wednesday was only a taste. In the game's highest leverage spot, manager Mike Shildt called for Miller to face Juan Soto and Pete Alonso. He struck out both (though not without some drama). Then, he retired three straight in the eighth. There's going to be more where that came from. Who knows? Miller might enter a big spot as early as the fifth or sixth inning, so long as Shildt feels it's the game's decisive moment. "I think we're at the time of the year where you just kind of go until the wheels fall off," said Miller. "It's an all-hands-on-deck kind of thing." Miller wants those moments -- and clearly isn't all that bothered if they don't come in the ninth. 3. Lineup question No. 1: Does Arraez stay at 2? Luis Arraez might be heating up. He's hitting .417 over the past week, while generally looking more like himself at the plate. But over the course of the season, Arraez has been the least productive of the Padres' five main lefty hitters. Shildt has kept him in the No. 2 spot, nonetheless. If the goal was to keep Arraez comfortable and get his bat going -- hey, maybe it's working. But if the Padres are insistent on using Arraez at No. 2 come playoff time, it's worth wondering what they're losing by batting the least productive of those lefty bats -- per wRC+, an all-encompassing hitting metric -- in the No. 2 spot. It seems unlikely that Shildt would shake things up on Day 1 of the postseason. If the shakeup doesn't come soon -- this weekend perhaps? -- it might never come. |
4. Lineup question No. 2: Where does Bogaerts slot back in? There's a good case that Ramón Laureano has been the best Trade Deadline acquisition in all of baseball (though the postseason typically settles that debate, and Miller might have a say). Still, Laureano has ascended to the No. 5 spot in the lineup in Bogaerts' absence. With an .871 OPS, there's no reason to move him back to 7. Bogaerts, who is nearing a return from a fractured left foot, would fit just fine at No. 7. Perhaps the more interesting question is: Who gives way? Ryan O'Hearn seems likeliest, given his recent struggles. Plus, that's an extremely useful bat to have coming off the bench. And in case you were wondering whether the Padres might occasionally keep Jake Cronenworth at short with Arraez at second -- no chance. Shildt said that when Bogaerts returns, he's back to his everyday shortstop role. 5. Lineup question No. 3: What about lefties? Collectively, the Padres have struggled against left-handed pitching this season, and they might see two very tough Cubs left-handers in a potential Wild Card Series -- Matthew Boyd and Shota Imanaga. How can the Padres combat that? Forget the Arraez conversation -- whichever lefty is batting second can easily be dropped to third, so the Padres can line up a 1-2 punch of, say, Fernando Tatis Jr.-Laureano or Tatis-Manny Machado. It's also worth asking whether Shildt would look to get Jose Iglesias' solid vs.-left bat into the lineup. The way Gavin Sheets and Jake Cronenworth have swung it, that seems unlikely. |
6. Now, about that rotation... Not an encouraging week in Queens. Nick Pivetta has earned himself plenty of grace this season, and it's not like he was bad on Wednesday. He still seems destined for a Game 1 start. Beyond Pivetta? Anyone's guess. Michael King is the likeliest No. 2 option, but he was rocked for a career-high eight runs on Tuesday. Randy Vásquez, meanwhile, clearly hasn't earned enough trust to work deep into games. (Then again, will the Padres even need that in the postseason? With this bullpen?) Dylan Cease and Yu Darvish can still make their own cases, but both have been inconsistent this season. Those four arms seem to be vying for two starting spots in a Wild Card Series. The Padres won't be asking much of them: Just get it to the bullpen with a lead -- or, at least, with a chance. |
MLB MORNING LINEUP PODCAST |
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Fernando Tatis Jr. just became the second player in Padres history to record a 20-homer, 30-steal season. Who was the first? A. Mike Cameron B. Steve Finley C. Wil Myers D. Reggie Sanders |
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D. Reggie Sanders Sanders hit 26 homers and swiped 36 bags for the Padres during the 1999 season. |
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