Friday, July 24

I’m still not sure what direction the Padres are headed at the Aug. 3 Trade Deadline. But I think their options are coming into focus.

That direction will almost certainly be shaped by the standings -- and by the market itself. But the way I see it, I think there are six different paths they could take.

I’m going to lay out those six paths here -- then I’ll get to which paths I’m starting to think are the most viable.

1. All-in buyers: If you’re going by recent history … this is the path general manager A.J. Preller took in 2020, ’22, ’24 and ’25. The difference this time? The Padres are currently on the outside of the playoff picture, looking in. In each of those previous seasons, they were already a playoff team, looking to boost their stock (and, in some years, looking to chase down the Dodgers in the NL West).

So what does this look like? The Padres need starting pitching. If they were all in, perhaps they’d throw themselves in the mix for some of the biggest names. Maybe they go after a big bat, too. 

That would probably mean making top prospect Ethan Salas available in a deal. And while Preller hasn’t shied away from trading his best prospects in the past, this year is different. The farm is more barren than usual. And, unlike previous seasons, there are no guarantees this team is playoff-bound. For the Padres to consider this route, they’d need to get very hot over the next 10 days.

2. Mild buyers: The Padres can add to their roster without trading Salas (and other top prospects). It might not be the same caliber system that we’ve seen in the past. But there are still intriguing players. (A credit to this scouting group for the way it’s replenished through the Draft.)

Do the Padres need an ace? Michael King has pitched like one at times. Nick Pivetta and Joe Musgrove are on their way back. Perhaps the need is only a mid-rotation starter or two.

The Padres don’t need to deplete their system to find those pieces. And if their offense is actually starting to come around -- it’s been a legitimate top 10 offense since mid-June -- that might be all they need.

3. A little of both: I’ve seen this concept thrown around, and I’m not entirely sure what it looks like. The bullpen is a strength. But it’s not so much a strength that you trade a piece like Adrian Morejon to get better elsewhere. Because, in that scenario, you’re weakening the very thing that you’re going to lean on heavily in October.

I guess it might make sense to move Wandy Peralta or Yuki Matsui, two middle-innings lefties who might be redundant. Perhaps the Padres would also consider moving Ty France (whose recent surge has seriously boosted his value), then they could use some of those pieces to add a pitcher. But, again, you’re depleting a strength -- France at first.

4. Stand pat: This feels like the least likely option. This roster has big flaws. It also has a high ceiling -- a ceiling that suddenly feels attainable now that the superstars are hitting like superstars.

But the rotation needs reinforcements. Otherwise, it’s hard to see this team staying afloat until Pivetta and/or Musgrove return. And if you’re not going to reinforce the rotation, you might as well get some value for the future. Which brings us to …

5. Mild sellers: Again, all of this is contingent on the standings come Aug. 3. If the Padres are still, say, three or four games back, this path might be sensible. Their schedule down the stretch is manageable. It’s possible they could make a run. If so, why throw away an opportunity with this core by going into full-scale sell mode?

But you can also be realistic. If your playoff odds are slim, and a reliever or two might bring you a prospect or two, maybe you make that deal. Additionally, there’s something to be said for a summer in which Preller keeps his top prospects and actually adds to his system. It could set the Padres up nicely for 2027.

6. All-out sellers: Knowing Preller, this seems unlikely -- unless they fall off a cliff in the coming week. There’s been trade speculation around Mason Miller. And, yes, that would be one indication they’re in all-out sell mode.

I think King is the better barometer. This team is going nowhere without King, the only reliable pitcher in the rotation. But he can opt out of his contract this winter (and wouldn’t even bring back a comp pick). If the Padres even consider moving King, that’s a sign they’re in sell mode.

Verdict: Call me an optimist, but I’m going with Option 2. Clearly, this team hasn’t earned the right for Option 1. It just hasn’t been good enough. FanGraphs had the Padres’ playoff odds around 7% as of the final out Thursday.

But there’s merit in what this offense has accomplished recently -- and in hoping for more of the same down the stretch. There’s merit in sticking with this bullpen, understanding what kind of a weapon it could be in October.

Now, I'm not taking Option 2 unless the Padres play much better -- and gain a couple games in the standings -- over the next 10 days. But they've got series against the Marlins, Giants and Rockies. It's not crazy to think they will. (If they don't, put me down for somewhere between Options 5 and 6.)

But if they do? If they're squarely in the mix come Aug. 3? You buy a mid-rotation starter, maybe two, and a bench bat. And you don’t break the bank (prospects-wise) to do so. Moderation isn’t usually Preller’s calling card at the Trade Deadline. But I think there’s sense in it this time around:

You don’t mortgage the future for this season. But you don’t waste an opportunity with this core, either.

Manny Machado’s recent surge has put him within striking distance of 400 homers. He’s currently at 391. Who is the only player to hit his 400th career home run with the Padres?

A. Jim Edmonds

B. Willie McCovey

C. Graig Nettles

D. Mike Piazza

• Fernando Tatis Jr. hit the longest homer in the Majors this season. It’s the latest sign: He’s back.

• "It's a weird spot to be in," said Ty France. He knows the deal: The Padres need to win now, if they want help at the Deadline.

• At long last, the Padres seem to have their stars all mashing at the same time.

• The Padres dropped a struggling Xander Bogaerts in the lineup. “Play better,” he said.

• Miguel Andujar is on the IL with a right wrist fracture. Here’s what it means.

D. Mike Piazza

Piazza launched his 400th homer on April 26, 2006, off Arizona’s José Valverde at Petco Park.

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