Friday, July 24

Welcome to the D-backs Beat newsletter! I’m Steve Gilbert and I’ve been writing about the D-backs since 1998. MLB.com's Brent Maguire filled in for this edition. Let's get started …

The 2026 D-backs are perhaps the best microcosm of the crowded Wild Card field in both leagues. 

At 54-49, Arizona finds itself with a one-game lead on the third and final Wild Card spot, but is also competing with a half-dozen other NL playoff hopefuls in a similar position. Further complicating the D-backs is that they have outscored their opponents by one run and are dealing with a barrage of injuries and have seen many of their star players perform well below their norms. 

It presents an interesting dilemma for which way the D-backs will approach the Aug. 3 Trade Deadline. Let’s dive into why the D-backs could/should be buyers and make a similar case for selling. 

Why the D-backs should buy

You don’t have to look far back to make the case for the D-backs buying at the Deadline. 

In 2023, the D-backs finished 84-78 and secured the third Wild Card spot in what was the second year of the expanded playoffs (a third Wild Card team was added in each league). Of course, Arizona blitzed its way through the first two rounds, stunning the Brewers (two-game sweep) in the Wild Card Series and sweeping the division-rival Dodgers in the NLDS. The D-backs secured an NL pennant with an NLCS win over the Phillies, but lost in the World Series in five games to the Rangers. 

The 2026 D-backs fully intend to buy and make a similar run as ‘23. 

"I want this team to make a deep run in the pennant race and into the playoffs, and we're going to need to add players to do that,” D-backs general manager Mike Hazen said earlier this month.

It’s not as if the D-backs are in too dissimilar of a position as the ‘23 club, a group that was outscored by 15 runs during the regular season. There’s also many of the same players who, hypothetically, should play better as the season progresses. 

Ketel Marte’s .774 OPS is well below his career .820 mark and over 100 points lower than it was in 2024 and ‘25. Geraldo Perdomo, who finished fourth in NL MVP voting last season, has seen his OPS plunge from .851 to .707. It’s possible that both players might not return to their ‘25 versions, but it’s not hard to think better things are on the horizon. 

And even if the status quo remains the same, Arizona is still firmly in the mix. The Cubs and Phillies seem to be firmly established for the top two Wild Card spots (or even their respective divisions), but none of the remaining contenders (Cardinals, Marlins, Pirates) have separated themselves from the pack yet. 

That’s what makes Arizona a team to watch in a trade market that features plenty of intriguing names. 

Why the D-backs should sell (and why that’s complicated)

With an expanded playoff format and plenty of reasons for the D-backs to push for a playoff spot, it's less clear to see why the club would opt to sell. Making the playoffs and giving yourself a chance is what sports are about, right?

With that in mind, it’s probably important to look at the current construction of the D-backs roster to determine just how legitimate of a contender the D-backs are. We touched on the down performances from Marte and Perdomo and, if you assume they just won’t return to their ‘25 levels, it changes the whole dynamics of this current roster. 

But Marte and Perdomo have still been good players and, frankly, that’s not even their biggest issue at the moment. The largest problem is an increasing number of D-backs who keep landing on the injured list, with many of them not likely to return until later this season, if at all. 

The list of D-backs on the IL includes Zac Gallen, Michael Soroka, Jordan Lawlar, Justin Martinez, Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Tommy Troy, Ryne Nelson, A.J. Puk and Corbin Burnes. Some of those players (Gurriel, Lawlar, Soroka) could be back fairly soon, but the timetable is more hazy for the rest of them. 

If you’re wondering how a team with so many injuries can sell, well, there’s the dilemma. As currently constructed, it’s hard to envision the D-backs making a deep run. That’d at least warrant a conversation to try selling at the Deadline, but with so many players injured, it becomes a question of who Arizona would even ponder trading. 

There’s no easy path for the D-backs, who occupy one of the weirdest positions of any club at this Deadline. It’ll be fascinating to see which direction they move.

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