Tarik Skubal is back, ahead of most projected recovery timetables. And not a moment too soon for the Tigers.
Pitchers who undergo elbow surgeries similar to the one performed on Skubal on May 6 typically need two to three months to recover. When the Tigers ace steps atop the mound to face Cleveland at Progressive Field on Saturday afternoon, he will be just 38 days post-op. Viva la “Skubal Scope”!
This is a remarkable development for arguably the best pitcher in the sport, and how he performs going forward will have ripple effects for both his team and any suitors ahead of the Aug. 3 Trade Deadline.
Here are three pressing questions that will hover over Skubal both tomorrow and in the weeks ahead:
Will he look like himself?
Skubal’s one rehab start provided plenty of optimism: five scoreless innings on 54 pitches, two hits allowed, no walks and six strikeouts while reportedly popping 99 mph on the radar gun. Of course, shutting down High-A hitters isn’t the same as dominating Major Leaguers, so the question will remain unanswered until we see exactly what he has for the Guardians.
Can he help the Tigers make a run?
Detroit fell into an abyss as soon as Skubal hit the injured list on May 4. From that point, the club went 4-21 to finish out the month, dropping from a first-place tie into the AL Central cellar. The main issue had little to do with Skubal’s absence; the Tigers’ offense averaged 2.6 runs per game during that stretch.
Detroit, however, is slowly climbing back into contention. It has won seven of its first nine games this month and is averaging 6.9 runs per. Despite a 29-40 record, the Tigers are just 5 1/2 games back of a playoff spot in the wide-open American League.
Just a couple more solid weeks could turn the Tigers from prospective sellers into buyers (or at least cause them to stand pat and ride out the rest of the season with their two-time Cy Young Award winner). Skubal’s presence will obviously help the cause, but whether the bats stay hot will have just as much of an impact on the team’s postseason chances.
If not, will the Tigers make a Skubal swap instead?
There must be a growing sense of optimism around the Tigers as they prepare to welcome Skubal back into the fold.
But there is a very real possibility that this just doesn’t work out. If Detroit slumps over the next six weeks, a trade involving Skubal seems likely. MLB Network insider Jon Heyman opined last week that there was a 90% chance that the left-hander will be on a new team by the Deadline.
That also hinges on the answer to our first question. If Detroit gets stuck in neutral but Skubal proves that he is back to normal, the chances of a trade would seemingly increase, especially since the pending free-agent and the team have been far apart in contract extension discussions, according to MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand.
