DETROIT -- The Tigers have risen from perennial rebuilders to back-to-back postseason contenders. Now comes the tricky part: How do they take the next step and build for a deeper postseason run? More immediate, how does their offseason play into it? The question of Tarik Skubal is likely to dominate talk this winter, but there’s more on president of baseball operations Scott Harris’ plate heading into what looms as a big offseason in Detroit. Here are five questions the Tigers face: |
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1. What to do about Skubal?
The lingering question that has quietly hung over the Tigers for the past year and a half is quiet no longer. Skubal is eligible for free agency after next season, and it leaves the Tigers at an intersection with essentially three options: A) Sign Skubal to a contract extension. Seems unlikely when Skubal can wait, hit the open market next winter and have a bidding process raise his value. But the Blue Jays did a deal under similar circumstances with first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. just six months ago, so never say never. B) Trade Skubal. This is the scenario fans don’t want to hear. But if the Tigers see no realistic chances of signing him now or next offseason, it’s a scenario that Harris has to consider to see how much clubs might be willing to offer. The Brewers reached a similar conclusion with Corbin Burnes two years ago and traded him to the Orioles for infielder Joey Ortiz, pitcher DL Hall and the 34th overall pick in the 2024 Draft, which became slugging first baseman and Brewers No. 29 prospect Blake Burke. The Padres did the same with Juan Soto and got a five-player package from the Yankees that included starter Michael King, catcher Kyle Higashioka and prospects, helping the Padres stay in contention. The Astros traded Kyle Tucker to the Cubs last offseason, before his contract year, for Isaac Paredes, Cam Smith and Hayden Wesneski. C) Ride it out. This is what the Tigers, under previous management, did with Max Scherzer in 2014. If Detroit is out of contention at midseason, Harris can revisit the trade scenario around the Trade Deadline. If not, they can play it through October, make Skubal a qualifying offer next offseason and get a compensation pick near the end of the first round of the 2027 Draft if he signs elsewhere. Sounds like a light return, but Detroit’s top prospect Kevin McGonigle was essentially a comp pick, taken 37th overall in 2023 (technically a competitive balance pick but in the same area of Round 1). Harris, for his part, isn’t tipping his hand. “I’ve kind of learned over time, especially with this question, that general questions tend to get chopped up and forced into narratives,” Harris said Monday. “I can’t comment on our players being traded, I can’t comment on free agents and I can’t comment on other teams’ players. So I’m going to respond by just not actually commenting on it. “Tarik is a Tiger. I hope he wins the Cy Young for the second consecutive year. He’s an incredible pitcher and we’re lucky to have him. That’s all I can say on that.” |
2. Does Jack come back? Jack Flaherty’s two-year contract he signed in February was really more like a one-year deal with a player option for 2026. At $10 million, that second year looked more like a failsafe in case of injury. But by topping 15 starts, Flaherty bumped that salary to $20 million, making it a little more intriguing after he struggled to a 4.64 ERA. Flaherty has until five days after the World Series to decide whether to opt out of the deal. If he opts out, the Tigers could extend a qualifying offer worth just over $22 million. Flaherty would then have 10 days to decide whether to accept that or hit the open market in search of a longer-term deal, which could net the Tigers a compensation pick in next summer’s Draft. How this plays out will have a big impact on the Tigers’ offseason priorities, notably how much focus Harris has to place on the rotation. Like Skubal, Casey Mize is also entering a contract year, while Reese Olson is coming off a right shoulder strain that limited him to just 13 starts this season. Jackson Jobe is likely to miss all of next season while rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. Troy Melton made just five starts, postseason included. Keider Montero has yet to establish himself as a full-time rotation member. |
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3. How much will they upgrade the offense? The Tigers’ offensive struggles down the stretch, particularly with strikeouts, clearly weighed on Harris’ mind as he talked with reporters Monday. “We need to make sure that we have a team next year that can consistently, across six months, make enough contact to be a productive offense.” What the Tigers can do about it is another matter. Both Harris and manager A.J. Hinch said most of the improvement will come internally, from offseason work with players to additions from the farm system. But if the Tigers want a bigger improvement, they can take another swing in free agency, where their short-term addition of Gleyber Torres paid dividends while they missed out on bigger additions. One of those ill-fated pursuits, Alex Bregman, is expected to return to the market, opting out of the remaining two seasons of the three-year, $120 million contract he signed with the Red Sox. Would the Tigers, having seen their six-year, $171.5 million offer spurned last winter, want to go down that road again for a player now one year older after a productive but injury-shortened season, especially after Harris said they want players who want to be in Detroit? Could the Tigers take a swing at a younger free-agent infielder in shortstop Bo Bichette? Or could they see value in more incremental upgrades such as shortstop Ha-Seong Kim? |
4. Where do the prospects fit in? The Tigers’ offense is going to have new faces next year regardless, because top prospects McGonigle, Max Clark and Josue Briceño are on their way. “I expect the players that posted dominant years in Double-A to factor into our big league team next year. They’ve earned it,” Harris said. “They posted incredible years as 20-year-olds, very young for the level. I expect their progress to continue, and I expect them to be in Detroit at some point next year. “Does that affect what we do this winter? Absolutely. How could it not?” McGonigle, currently MLB Pipeline’s No. 2 overall prospect, is notably getting work at third base in the Arizona Fall League to add to his skill set at shortstop and second base. He’s likely to fit somewhere in Detroit’s infield mix sooner rather than later. Clark projects as the Tigers’ center fielder of the future, which could lead to a decision point on current center fielder Parker Meadows after his injury-shortened season. Briceño could take more time while he works on his bat and his ultimate defensive position, but his raw power presents an intriguing late-season possibility at DH, first base and/or catcher. |
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5. Time for a bullpen retooling? The Tigers have ridden their relief corps for a season and a half, and the bullpen seemed to show signs of wear and tear down the stretch this season and into the playoffs. Tyler Holton had big increases in hit rate, home runs, ERA and hard-hit rate while leaning more heavily on a mix of cutters, sinkers and sweepers. Will Vest found a second wind in October after struggling down the stretch. Tommy Kahnle went from early-season closing option to 15th-inning pitcher in Game 5 in Seattle. Brant Hurter’s sophomore season was a mixed bag. Kyle Finnegan became a workhorse after arriving from the Nationals, but other Trade Deadline additions -- Rafael Montero, Paul Sewald and Codi Heuer -- made little to no contributions. While still a solid group, it was not as much of a strength as last year. The Tigers did a modest relief retooling last winter, and could try for something more extensive this time. Finnegan is a free agent but expressed interest in returning. Chase Lee and Dylan Smith, who debuted in April and June respectively, could vie for bigger roles. But the Tigers could use another lefty, and could use a high-strikeout option or two. |
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