Hello and welcome to the Rays Beat newsletter. Mike Petriello is pinch-hitting this week. Junior Caminero is having a transcendent breakout season, and you already know the reasons why. Swinging one of the fastest bats in the Majors, Caminero made his first All-Star team, advanced to the finals of the Home Run Derby and, with 39 home runs entering September, he still has a chance of matching or topping Carlos Pena’s 2007 franchise record of 46. Caminero hasn’t just been good since the Derby, he’s been great -- posting a top 33 .830 OPS entering Tuesday and becoming the one-billionth (approximately) data point to prove that there’s no such thing as a Home Run Derby curse. Not bad for a player who just turned 22 in July and is only now completing his first full Major League season, right? Quite right. But you’ll notice that every achievement noted above comes from his potent bat, and all the homers might just have obscured a different kind of improvement that might end up being vital to not only Caminero's future, but also the composition of the Rays' lineup: Unlike earlier this year, Caminero’s third-base defense is no longer a detriment to Tampa Bay's pitching. It might actually be a positive. |
That’s hard to see if you were to just go look at the third-base rankings of Statcast’s Fielding Runs Saved, because while the names at or near the top (Ke’Bryan Hayes, Matt Chapman) and bottom (Mark Vientos, Yoán Moncada) should make plenty of sense, Caminero can be found right in the mushy middle, credited with 0 Fielding Runs Saved -- another way of saying “average.” But a season-long view obscures what’s been a pretty clear trend in a positive direction for Caminero, one that can only be seen if you break his Outs Above Average down on a monthly basis. • APRIL: -4 • MAY: -2 • JUN: +1 • JUL: +2 • AUG: +2 Another way of saying that is that through the end of May, Caminero was tied for 45th out of 48 third basemen with at least 100 innings, and since the start of June, he ranks fourth out of 64. If it’s premature to start talking about Gold Gloves here -- splitting defensive metrics down into even smaller components can occasionally be risky -- there’s at least a strong trend in the right direction for a young player. That’s important, because early in the season, the eye test looked as questionable as the numbers did. Look no further than this March 28 error against the Rockies, or the April 13 miscue that nearly had him falling over, or the May moment in Toronto where you could nearly hear the “clank” of an easy grounder off Caminero's glove from the upper deck. This wasn’t totally surprising, because prior to 2024, when FanGraphs named him their No. 4 overall prospect, they also added that “candidly, he did not look good playing third in winter ball for Escogido during the offseason,” adding that their future comp for him was Marcell Ozuna -- since he’d be an outfielder in time. |
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Perhaps so. Despite his youth, Caminero already possesses below-average running speed (30th percentile, or slower than any non-catcher near his age), so a move to first base or a corner-outfield spot may yet be in the cards in the future. There’s just a big difference between that having to happen at 22 years old or somewhere closer to 30. It’s at this point that we’d like to tell you it’s about positioning, or footwork, or some other magical trick that solved everything. We regret to inform you it seems to be far more mundane than that. It’s even not about highlight plays -- not really. It’s about simply cutting down on the mistakes, as you might expect for a player who spent much of his time in the Minors as a shortstop and is only now, for the first time in his professional career, playing at least 100 games in a season at third. It’s about experience and hard work, mostly with Rays third-base coach Brady Williams. There's no simpler way to say it than this: In April, Caminero converted just 66% of his opportunities into outs. In August, it’s 76%. It’s not an elite number, as the best fielders get up into the 80s. But it’s a good number. It’s a good trend, too, and a reminder that Caminero’s value may not be only coming from his bat. |
In case you missed it, MLB released the 2026 regular-season schedule last week. The Rays’ season opener will take place against the Cardinals in St. Louis on March 26. That also marks the start of a three-city, nine-game road trip through St. Louis, Milwaukee and Minnesota. That could mean a chilly start to the season for the Rays, but it should give them a little bit more time to prepare for their planned return to Tropicana Field next season. (Roof repairs are underway, by the way.) Mark your calendars: Their first home game is set for April 6 against the Cubs. They will also host the Yankees in their first homestand of the season. Check out the Rays’ schedule for next season here. |
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The Rays are offering a special Rays Invasion ticket package for Thursday’s game against the Guardians at George M. Steinbrenner Field. The ticket includes a seat in sections 215-217 and a custom Rays Invasion oversized chain, which can be picked up before the sixth inning at the Redemption Center located behind the Webullpen Third Base Club. Learn more here. |
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