Thursday, January 15

Welcome to the first 2026 edition of the Orioles Beat newsletter. Hope everyone had a great holiday season. Now, let’s get back into it ... 

BALTIMORE -- Two years ago, I began a new annual tradition in this space with 24 Orioles predictions for 2024. Last year, it returned with 25 O’s predictions for ‘25.

You know where this is headed.

Let’s make 26 Orioles predictions for 2026.

1. Another big splash will come before Spring Training

An aggressive offseason for Baltimore doesn’t feel over yet. Expect another significant move. Maybe a frontline starting pitcher?

2. A left-hander will be added to the bullpen mix

The unit could benefit from the addition of a high-leverage lefty.

3. The O’s won’t carry three first basemen on their roster

With Pete Alonso now in the fold, there isn’t room for him, Ryan Mountcastle and Coby Mayo to coexist. Some type of move will happen.

4. Anthony Nunez will be a Spring Training surprise story

The Orioles’ bullpen has openings, and this 24-year-old right-hander could win a job out of camp.

5. Tyler O’Neill will hit an Opening Day home run

Let’s bring back this one from last year. Death, taxes and O’Neill hitting Opening Day homers, which he’s done an AL/NL-record six consecutive years.

6. O’Neill will also have a better season

The 30-year-old is better than he showed last year. Better fortune (and better health) will lead to better results.

7. Kyle Bradish will make his first Opening Day start

Even if the O’s still sign a frontline starter, they’ll reward Bradish with the opener assignment.

8. Gunnar Henderson will reclaim his Most Valuable Oriole Award

Trevor Rogers took the honor in 2025 after Henderson won in both ‘23 and ‘24. The 24-year-old shortstop reclaims it in ‘26, just beating out new teammate Alonso.

9. Speaking of Alonso ... how about 50 home runs?

The Polar Bear hasn’t reached this number since his 53-homer rookie campaign in 2019. Alonso joins Chris Davis (53 in 2013) and Brady Anderson (50 in 1996) in an exclusive club for the Orioles.

10. And the O’s will lead the American League in home runs

This lineup has a ton of thump now, with sluggers up and down the order.

11. Jackson Holliday will be a first-time All-Star

More steps forward should be coming for the 22-year-old second baseman.

12. Adley Rutschman will also be an All-Star

The 27-year-old two-time All-Star (2023 and ‘24) will round back into form after a down, injury-marred ‘25 campaign.

13. Henderson and Alonso will round out the O’s All-Star contingent

If they’re going to have great seasons, then trips to the Midsummer Classic make sense.

14. The O’s will be buyers at the Trade Deadline -- and make a big move

Maybe they’ll fortify the bullpen ahead of a push for the postseason?

15. New closer Ryan Helsley will record 35 saves

Here’s another player who will bounce back. The 31-year-old should settle into the role well.

16. The starting rotation will emerge as a key strength

The Orioles need their starters to help carry them, and a staff that has shaped up well will do so.

17. Shane Baz will have a career-best season

The stuff is impressive, and he finally has a full season under his belt. The 26-year-old right-hander could surprise some people.

18. Jordan Westburg will set a new career high in games played

The soon-to-be 27-year-old will be a key contributor again, and most importantly, he’ll stay healthy enough to play in at least 108 games.

19. Tyler Wells will make more relief appearances than starts

But the 31-year-old will again pitch well no matter what’s asked of him.

20. Samuel Basallo will win AL Rookie of the Year

A breakout year is coming for the 21-year-old, whose bat will heat up in the summer months.

21. Dylan Beavers will receive AL Rookie of the Year votes

Basallo may win the award, but Beavers will get some recognition as well.

22. Craig Albernaz will win AL Manager of the Year

His former boss (Cleveland’s Stephen Vogt, the reigning two-time AL Manager of the Year) will have his streak ended by his good friend.

23. The Orioles will return to the postseason ... 

This is how Albernaz will earn the award -- by helping the O’s go from a 75-win squad to reaching the playoffs for the third time in four years.

24. ... and they’ll do so as the AL East champions

It’ll be a competitive division, and the Blue Jays will likely enter as the favorite. But the Orioles’ offseason will put them in a position to go toe to toe for the title.

25. The postseason losing streak will end

It may be a bit bold to predict this, but the O’s turnaround season will also feature their first win in a playoff game since 2014. The talent is there, and this group could jell under Albernaz.

26. But Baltimore won’t return to the World Series quite yet

The Orioles will show significant improvement, though they’ll come up short in the postseason. But there will still be time for this core to lead the team to a championship in the near future (perhaps even in 2027).

• I recently held an AMA on Orioles Reddit to discuss some offseason topics. More >>

• Baz is excited to arrive in Baltimore, where he’ll reunite with Rutschman, his former Futures Game batterymate. More >>

• MLB Pipeline predicts one pitcher on the O’s farm will be a breakout prospect in ‘26. More >>

“The moves that they've made, it's a win-now thing. We want to win the World Series, and everybody on the team knows that. Clearly, they're making it obvious that we're going to make a run at this thing. So it was very attractive to come back.” -- right-hander Zach Eflin, on returning to the Orioles on a one-year deal for 2026

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