Sunday, September 27

Welcome to the latest edition of the Phillies Beat newsletter. This version was written by Paul Casella, who has been based in Philadelphia since 2019 and covers the team alongside Todd Zolecki.

PHILADELPHIA -- The Trade Deadline is officially one week away. 

By this time next week, the Phillies will likely have a new face or two in the clubhouse. 

Maybe it’ll be a high-leverage arm for the bullpen or an impact bat in the outfield? Perhaps it’ll be someone to help soak up innings out of the No. 5 spot in the rotation? Or maybe even a difference maker who could take down a start in October? 

There is no question that the Phillies have multiple needs ahead of the Aug. 3 Deadline, but it’s unlikely they’ll be able to make substantial additions in each of those areas. 

So what are the biggest needs? And what might the options be? 

Let’s dive in a bit further heading into a week full of rumors and speculation: 

BULLPEN 

What they need: A high-leverage, late-inning reliever 

Why they need it: With Brad Keller out for the season, the Phillies have been searching for a consistent setup man to bridge the gap to shutdown closer Jhoan Duran. Right-hander Jonathan Bowlan has stepped up in Keller’s absence, allowing just two earned runs over 18 1/3 innings (0.98 ERA) since the start of June. Fellow righty Orion Kerkering (2.75 ERA) has also pitched well for the most part this season, though he has a 4.50 ERA while pitching the eighth inning (nine earned runs in 18 innings) compared to a 1.27 ERA (three earned runs in 21 1/3 innings) in any other inning. 

Meanwhile, the Phillies have gotten little to no production from their leverage left-handers this season. José Alvarado has a 6.16 ERA over 44 appearances, though his expected ERA is a far more respectable 3.68. Fellow southpaw Tanner Banks has a 7.14 ERA in 28 outings this season, plus he’s now on the 60-day injured list with a left forearm strain, meaning he couldn’t return until September at the earliest. 

Who’s available: This, of course, is always the biggest question. The top tier includes elite relievers such as Mason Miller of the Padres and Aroldis Chapman of the Red Sox, though it’s possible neither will be traded with San Diego hanging around the NL Wild Card race and Boston catapulting itself into an AL Wild Card spot with its recent 15-game winning streak. 

So, who's next? 

Well, let’s break it down into two groups: Pending free agents and pitchers under team control beyond this season. 

Among the potential rental options are left-handers A.J. Minter (Mets) and Adrian Morejon (Padres), as well as righties Kenley Jansen (Tigers), Antonio Senzatela (Rockies) and Pete Fairbanks (Marlins). 

Minter would require an intradivision deal with the rival Mets, while Morejon presents the same potential obstacle as Miller. Jansen has the postseason track record but isn’t the same pitcher he used to be. Senzatela has been solid since transitioning to the ‘pen this year. Fairbanks has a 7.18 ERA. 

As for possible trade targets with multiple years of team control, the list includes: righties Huascar Brazoban (Mets), Luke Weaver (Mets), Kyle Finnegan (Tigers) and Ryan Walker (Giants); and lefty Erik Miller (Giants).

ROTATION 

What they need: No. 5 starter  

Why they need it: The Phillies haven’t won a game out of that final spot of the rotation since May 18. 

Who’s available: This is where it gets tricky. The list is obviously much larger if you’re just looking for a pitcher who can fill that No. 5 spot and eat up innings every fifth day to help protect the bullpen. It shrinks considerably if you’re looking for a middle-of-the-rotation starter who could push for a potential postseason start. 

And then there’s Tigers ace Tarik Skubal, who is essentially in a class of his own. That’s extremely unlikely for the Phils, given the competition they would likely have from other contenders who could almost certainly offer a better return package.

So focusing more on those first two categories, there are the veterans who -- for one reason or another -- aren’t pitching to the level they have in the past. That group includes the likes of Shane Bieber (Blue Jays), Zac Gallen (D-backs), Kevin Gausman (Blue Jays), Freddy Peralta (Mets) and former Phillie Walker Buehler (Padres). 

Then there’s the guys who would be expected to make a more substantial impact. Think more along the lines of Robbie Ray (Giants), Brady Singer (Reds), Michael Wacha (Royals), Foster Griffin (Nationals), Clay Holmes (Mets) or Sandy Alcantara (Marlins). 

It’s not an exclusive list, but they’re all names to watch. 

OUTFIELDER 

What they need: A right-handed-hitting outfielder 

Why they need it: The Phillies have scored one run or fewer an MLB-high 25 times this season and their .303 OBP as a team is tied for worst in MLB. 

Who’s available: The list of hitters who could be available at the Deadline isn’t necessarily a substantial one, and it shrinks even further if you limit it to right-handed-hitting outfielders. But that’s essentially what the Phillies need most, and -- barring some unexpected significant shakeup in the infield -- the outfield is the only place they have flexibility to plug in a new player.

Byron Buxton and Mike Trout are the two names Phillies fans have thrown around for years, but neither seems likely to be traded. 

That leaves players such as Taylor Ward (Orioles), Lane Thomas (Royals), Jo Adell (Angels) and Spencer Steer (Reds). 

Ward's .386 OBP ranks 10th in the Majors -- just a tick behind Shohei Ohtani. It would easily be the best mark on the Phillies. Steer has the most versatility, having played all three outfield spots, as well as first, second and third base this season.

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