Padres right-hander Dylan Cease is scheduled to start tonight at Petco Park in the opener of a pivotal three-game series against the Mets. His next start after that one? It’s complicated. As you’ve likely heard, Cease has been rumored as one of the top starting pitchers available on the trade market ahead of Thursday’s 3 p.m. PT Trade Deadline. MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand recently ranked the most intriguing trade chips for each team, and Cease was San Diego's entry. The Padres remain squarely in the playoff picture and have made it clear they view themselves as contenders. They will be buyers this week. So why deal Cease, who has ace-caliber stuff and remains a reliable presence in their rotation, even despite some underperformance this year? There are all sorts of factors at play -- namely the team's long-term outlook, the deficiencies elsewhere on the roster and the overall financial flexibility. Let’s break it all down: |
An offseason of questions looms Cease, Michael King and Luis Arraez are all slated to reach free agency after the season. Robert Suarez has a player option that he seems likely to decline. That’s four integral players who could depart for virtually nothing this winter. General manager A.J. Preller has often spoken about viewing transactions in the context of both the present window and a 3-5 year window. In the context of that longer-term window, there’s something to be said for flipping a player without any future team control for a player (or players) with multiple years of control. And among that group, Cease is the most intriguing trade piece, especially if the Padres would like to avoid adding salary. They currently project as sitting right at the second CBT threshold. Cease has proven that he has ace-caliber stuff. He’s making nearly $14 million this year. Theoretically, the Padres could trade Cease for cheaper, longer-term pieces, while freeing up financial flexibility to make moves elsewhere. (Right now, San Diego’s biggest needs are on offense.) But there are clear downsides to doing so. The state of the Padres’ rotation King hasn’t yet returned from the nerve issue that affected his right shoulder. (Today, he faces hitters for the first time in a simulated game.) Yu Darvish hasn’t looked like himself since he returned from the right-elbow inflammation that sidelined him for most of the first half. (Darvish and the Padres insist he’s fine, health-wise.) Cease, despite his worse-than-usual numbers, has been a steady presence, continuing his run of never missing a turn through the rotation. Nick Pivetta has been the Padres’ best starter this season, and a playoff rotation featuring Pivetta, King and Darvish -- plus one of the best bullpens in baseball backing them up -- doesn’t sound so bad. But that’s assuming King returns without issue and Darvish reverts to his usual self. Otherwise, the Padres could find themselves precariously thin on starting pitchers if they were to deal Cease. Which raises the possibility of … |
Buying and selling in the rotation? If the Padres were to deal Cease, this seems like the likeliest path. They would presumably fetch a decent haul for a starter with an ace-caliber ceiling. Perhaps they flip some of that haul for a controllable rotation piece to better set them up moving forward. Darvish will turn 40 next season. King will be a free agent this winter. Pivetta has been outstanding and Joe Musgrove is slated to return from Tommy John surgery next year. But the long-term state of the rotation feels shaky -- even with the strong performances from Randy Vásquez, Ryan Bergert and Stephen Kolek this season. Perusing Feinsand’s list of players most likely to be traded, Pittsburgh’s Mitch Keller and Miami’s Edward Cabrera check in as starters with multiple years of control. He mentions Sandy Alcantara as well. The Padres have fewer trade pieces this year than they have in the past. But, well, if they were to trade Cease, their stack of trade chips would theoretically increase. Diagnosing Cease’s struggles It’s hard to say whether the Padres would be selling low on Cease. He’s posted a 4.59 ERA in 21 starts this season. He’s also notched a 3.57 FIP and a 3.48 xERA -- metrics that attempt to remove batted-ball and sequencing luck from the equation. Cease summed his season up thusly: “I will say that I don’t feel like I’ve executed as crisply this year. I do feel like I’ve pitched a little bit better than the numbers. … But I haven’t really executed well enough. I have lately. I like where I’m at lately. It’s been definitely a little bit more of a down season. But I am still in it.” Which means there’s time for Cease to turn it around. And as he noted, he’s been sharper lately, even if results haven’t turned. He’s struck out 23 hitters to just six walks over his last three outings. His chase and whiff numbers are as strong as ever. “There have definitely been starts where it’s been mostly good, then I leave a slider down the middle and it’s a two- or three-run homer, and I feel like I actually had a decent start,” Cease said. “But I just don’t feel like I’ve been as consistent. It’s Major League Baseball. It’s small margins. All it takes is hanging one.” Still, there are reasons to believe Cease is due for a late-season turnaround (or, depending on how you feel about his results so far, a regression to the mean). The question is: Will he be looking to make that turnaround in San Diego or elsewhere? |
So … will they do it? As a Padre, Cease has dealt with trade rumors dating back to the offseason. As a baseball player, he’s been dealing with trade rumors for the better part of the last three years. San Diego landed him last spring in a deal with the White Sox, who had been publicly shopping Cease for a while. He’s learned to tune out the noise better than most. “At the end of the day I really just try to focus on executing pitches,” Cease said. “It sounds too simple and kind of corny. But no matter where I’m at, I want to perform well.” The likelihood that Cease would be traded depends on who you ask. The Padres set a very, very high price during the offseason (and rightly so). It sounds like they’d prefer to keep it similarly high, according to a source with knowledge of the team’s decision making. There isn’t urgency to move Cease unless the deal is right. If Cease were to depart in free agency, the Padres would receive a compensatory Draft pick (coming after the fourth round, presuming they’re a CBT payor, which seems likely). There are worse things, after all, than chasing a World Series with Dylan Cease at the front of your rotation. |
MLB MORNING LINEUP PODCAST |
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On Thursday, Jake Cronenworth set the franchise record for starts at second base. But he hasn’t yet taken the top spot for total games played at the position. Who currently holds that spot? A. Roberto Alomar B. Tim Flannery C. Mark Loretta D. Quilvio Veras |
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B. Tim Flannery Flannery appeared in 543 games at second base for the Padres, with Cronenworth in second at 454. |
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