ATLANTA -- Sean Murphy broke a rib so that the Braves could prosper for many years to come. Well, that wasn’t necessarily the plan when he was pelted with a fastball during the first week of this year’s Grapefruit League season. But if Murphy hadn’t started this season on the injured list with this injury, would Drake Baldwin have won the Jackie Robinson National League Rookie of the Year Award? Maybe. Michael Harris II won the honor in 2022, despite not debuting until the end of May. Would Baldwin have been on Atlanta’s Opening Day roster? Maybe. The Braves hadn’t ruled out the possibility of Baldwin starting the year in the Majors, even in a backup role. But there’s no doubt Murphy missing the season’s first nine games improved the probability of Baldwin winning the award. If nothing else, the short absence put the Braves in position to be compensated quite nicely once Baldwin became the 10th player in franchise history to be named Rookie of the Year. |
Courtesy of the Prospect Promotion Incentive, which was implemented with the 2022 Collective Bargaining Agreement, Baldwin winning this honor netted the Braves a compensation pick after the first round of the 2026 MLB Draft. Along with this comes what will likely be a little more than $3 million in bonus pool money. This could be used to aid the signing of any player Atlanta takes within the first 10 rounds next summer. Clubs earn a Draft pick after the first round if a PPI-eligible player accrues one year of service as a rookie and then either wins his league’s Rookie of the Year award or places in the top three in MVP or Cy Young voting prior to qualifying for arbitration. One year of service requires 172 days on an active roster. So players with little or no MLB service time need to be called up within the first two weeks of Opening Day. Would Baldwin have met this qualification had he not started the season with Atlanta? Probably not, but at least debatable. Speaking of debates, the Braves would lose this compensation Draft pick if they were to sign any of these 13 players who received a qualifying offer: DH Kyle Schwarber, OF Kyle Tucker, SP Ranger Suárez, SP Framber Valdez, INF Bo Bichette, SP Dylan Cease, OF Trent Grisham, 2B Gleyber Torres, RP Edwin Díaz, SP Brandon Woodruff, SP Zac Gallen, SP Shota Imanaga, SP Michael King. |
There is potentially significant long-term value with both the compensation pick and the accompanying bonus pool money. The additional funds could provide value with the selection of multiple players. At the same time, there could be immediate and long-term value gained by signing an impact free agent who was given a qualifying offer. In other words, if the Braves have a chance to land Cease, then it’s worth debating whether it’s worth doing so at the expense of the Draft pick and bonus pool money. The same wouldn’t necessarily go for Gallen. I previously wrote it might be worth taking a chance on Gallen bouncing back next year. But once he received the qualifying offer, the total cost became too significant. He likely wouldn’t bring the significant long-term value needed to justify losing the compensation pick. |
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MLB MORNING LINEUP PODCAST |
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Which one of these Braves never won a Rookie of the Year Award? A. David Justice B. Dale Murphy C. Bob Horner D. Earl Williams |
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Pierce Johnson and Tyler Kinley joined Raisel Iglesias on the free agent market last week. If the season started today, Dylan Lee would be the closer and Aaron Bummer would be his setup man. Why? Well, Joe Jiménez's recovery from last offseason’s knee surgery remains a concern. Jiménez was shut down when he was throwing at the Braves’ Spring Training complex during the latter part of this past season. Asked on Tuesday for an update, Braves president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos said, “We’ll see as we get closer to Spring [Training]. We’ll know more in January.” That certainly doesn’t sound promising, especially for a team that was already looking at a heavy bullpen reconstruction. With that being said, Anthopoulos reiterated on Tuesday that finding a shortstop and strengthening his rotation are currently higher priorities than the bullpen. |
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Yeah, the Braves need a shortstop and relievers. They also could greatly benefit from the insurance another starting pitcher could bring. But what about compensating for the loss of what had at least been projected from Marcell Ozuna’s bat? Should the Braves fill their DH spot with a variety of their position players again next year? Or, should they continue to have one set DH like they’ve had with Ozuna over the past few years? Ozuna was a shell of himself last year. But if the Braves are confident his hip has healed, it might be worth seeking a bargain deal. Ozuna is beloved throughout the Atlanta clubhouse. He was recently seen attending a basketball game in South Korea with Ha-Seong Kim. Maybe Ozuna leverages a return to Atlanta by telling the Braves they need to sign him to get Kim. |
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Answer: B Murphy endured a couple rough years before becoming arguably the game’s best player of the 1980s. |
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