Friday, August 29

Welcome to the latest edition of the Phillies Beat Newsletter. This version was written by Paul Casella, who has been based in Philadelphia since 2019 and covers the team alongside Todd Zolecki.

The end of the regular season is exactly one month away.

Even after being swept by the Mets, the Phillies entered Thursday with a four-game lead atop the National League East. The focus over the final month will obviously be on wrapping up their second consecutive division title -- and potentially a first-round bye.

In the meantime, here are four of the biggest questions facing Philadelphia down the stretch:

What’s the plan in the outfield?

For much of the season, the Phillies' outfield alignment consisted of a pair of platoons -- one in left and one in center.

Now, it's more of a full-fledged rotation.

Call it what you want, but it seems the mixing and matching at all three outfield positions will continue for the time being -- and why not? It's working. The Phillies are 15-9 since acquiring Harrison Bader at the Trade Deadline -- tied for the second-best record in the Majors during that span.

Bader has started to get more regular reps up the middle, starting five straight games in center -- three vs. righties and two vs. lefties. The corners have been a little more fluid. Brandon Marsh, Weston Wilson and Max Kepler have been getting reps in left, while Kepler has also spelled Nick Castellanos in right three times in the past 11 games.

“I think it's going to be more of a rotation than anything else," manager Rob Thomson said recently.

Will that be the case for the rest of the season?

"I can't tell you that,” Thomson said. “If three guys get really hot and one guy's not ... "

At the very least, this rotation suggests Thomson is now open to the idea of Castellanos not taking all the reps in right field. Come postseason time, even if Castellanos starts a game, this sets the table for a possible late-game defensive replacement if the Phillies have the lead.

Thomson recently acknowledged that the club’s best defensive outfield is Marsh, Bader and Kepler from left to right.

How will the starting rotation look for the postseason?

Even without ace Zack Wheeler, the Phillies have plenty of confidence in their starting rotation. The potential postseason plan, however, will hinge on Aaron Nola’s performance over the final month.

Cristopher Sánchez is in line to start Game 1. Ranger Suárez has returned to form over his past couple of starts. Jesús Luzardo has shown flashes of dominance for stretches this season.

But all three are left-handed.

The Phillies would very much prefer to split them up with a right-hander -- and they will almost certainly do that as long as Nola is pitching at a respectable level come October.

Not only would that allow the Phils to split up the lefties, but if they secure a first-round bye, having Nola in the rotation could allow them to potentially move Luzardo and Taijuan Walker to the bullpen. With the way the schedule lines up, Philadelphia would need only three starters to navigate the NLDS.

So, what is the path to a first-round bye?

The two division winners with the best record in each league receive a bye for the Wild Card Series.

In the NL, the Brewers (83-51) seem poised for the first bye with a 6 1/2-game lead over the Phillies. As for the second bye, it’s shaping up to be a three-team race between the Phils, Dodgers and Padres.

As it stands now, the Phillies (76-57) are a half-game behind the Dodgers (77-57) and 1 1/2 games ahead of the Padres (75-59).

However, FanGraphs gives the Phillies just a 23.0% chance to secure a bye -- well behind the Dodgers (63.8%). The Padres have a 17.9% chance.

The reason? Remaining schedules.

The Dodgers have only two remaining series against a team with a winning record. The first is a three-game set against the Phillies from Sept. 15-17 at Dodger Stadium. The other is the final series of the season, when they play the Mariners. The Padres have an easier remaining schedule, with 10 of their final 28 games coming against the Rockies (seven) and White Sox (three) -- the two worst teams in the Majors.

Meanwhile, the Phillies still have games remaining against the first-place Brewers (three games), Mets (four), Dodgers (three) and Royals (three).

Will we see Andrew Painter in September?

It’s certainly possible.

Painter is expected to make his latest start for Triple-A Lehigh Valley on Thursday night. The No. 10 prospect in baseball, per MLB Pipeline, Painter pitched better over his past two outings, posting a 2.70 ERA in 10 innings after putting up a 6.22 ERA in his previous 12 starts.

With active rosters set to expand from 26 to 28 players on Monday, a callup for Painter could potentially be in play for the final month. It would come with the benefit of not only giving the Phillies an up-close look at their top prospect, but they could also pivot to a six-man rotation for a couple of turns to give their other starters a much-needed breather.

Major League Baseball released its 2026 schedule on Tuesday, and there is plenty to look forward to for Phillies fans.

The Phils will open next season at home on March 26, when they host the Rangers on Opening Day. That kicks off a six-game season-opening homestand against the Rangers and Nationals.

There are also plenty of July dates worth circling on your calendar.

Philadelphia is set to host the 2026 All-Star Game on July 14 (and the Home Run Derby one night earlier) -- but coming out of that break is going to be one of the most highly anticipated homestands in recent seasons.

The Phillies open the second half next season by hosting three-game series against the Mets (July 17-19), Dodgers (July 20-22) and Yankees (July 24-26).

They finish the season the same way they started, wrapping things up with a six-game homestand against the Brewers and Rays.

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