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When you hear the name “Paul Skenes” and the word “underrated” thrown together, your natural reaction is probably to scoff, roll your eyes or both. We get it.
But when our Mike Petriello makes that case in his Skenes breakdown today, it’s best to hear him out, because you know he is bringing the evidence to back up that logical leap. And the evidence boils down to this: As hyped and accomplished as Skenes has been since back in his college days -- and remember, he’s started the All-Star Game in both of his big league seasons -- that still doesn’t match his actual results thus far. Because those results are historically, almost impossibly, great.
When Skenes takes the ball tonight against the Reds at PNC Park (6:40 p.m. ET, FREE on MLB.TV), he will do so with a 1.99 career ERA. As Petriello puts it:
If you’re wondering if that’s a notable mark over the last century-plus of baseball, it’s merely the best anyone’s done in their first 46 starts since the start of the Live Ball Era in 1920. He’s the only starter in the last 105 years to kick off a career like this with an ERA under 2.00.
Closest to Skenes on that list is Vida Blue (2.03), with names such as Dwight Gooden (2.27), Orel Hershiser (2.31) and José Fernández (2.39) also making an appearance.
Petriello goes deeper, too, and even more advanced tools than raw ERA tell basically the same story. Just about zero pitchers in modern baseball history have been this good, this early in their careers.
One thing helping to obscure that fact, especially in 2025? It’s a 49-66 Pittsburgh team that isn’t providing Skenes with much support. Skenes carries a 6-8 record into tonight’s start, the same as the Cardinals’ Andre Pallante (4.57), the Angels’ Kyle Hendricks (4.59 ERA) and the Red Sox’s Dustin May (4.93). Just look at how Skenes’ season breaks down, in terms of opponent slash line (BA/OBP/SLG) by pitcher decision:
Wins (6): .153/.189/.226
Losses (8): .196/.254/.341
No-decisions (9): .204/.284/.293
Only two qualified Major League hitters have a lower OPS this season than the .595 mark Skenes has posted in games in which he has been charged with a loss. It’s mind-boggling stuff, but it shouldn’t obscure the fact that every time the NL Cy Young Award favorite steps on the mound, he’s making history.
-- Andrew Simon