Friday, May 29

NEW YORK – The toughest division in baseball is … the National League Central?

It wasn't forecasted that way, but like the weather, baseball isn't perfectly predictable. After 50-plus games, every club has a winning record, and only 4 1/2 games separate the first-place Brewers (31-20) from the last-place Pirates (28-26). The Reds (28-25) sit a half-game above Pittsburgh.

“It’s pretty impressive what our division has done so far," Reds manager Terry Francona said on Monday. "But it doesn’t really mean anything more than that right now. It’s something maybe fun to talk about for you guys. Other than that, we’ve got a game today.”

According to Elias Sports Bureau, all teams in the NL Central had never had a winning record through at least 50 games played. The last time it happened in any division was three seasons ago in the American League East, when all five teams were above .500 on Sept. 14, 2023, with each club having played at least 146 games.

Is the pace all five teams have set sustainable, especially when NL Central clubs will begin playing each other more often as the season moves on?

“I hope it isn’t," Francona said. "If it’s not, I hope it’s not us [who loses].”

Under Francona since 2025, Cincinnati rarely looks too far ahead, nor does the club put too much emphasis on any one game or series. 

“Not really, just because a win is the same value whether we’re playing American League, National League, in the division or out of the division," outfielder/infielder Spencer Steer said. "We’re just trying to win ballgames, so I don’t think there’s any extra weight on it.”

OK, but it really wouldn't hurt to step up the performance against division foes.

After a 7-2 win vs. the Mets on Monday, the Reds have a 26-15 record against all clubs outside the NL Central – which is third best in MLB – and average 4.8 runs per game with a 4.18 ERA and a +12 run differential. 

It's not close to being that rosy versus their division rivals.

Cincinnati is 2-10 vs. the NL Central, which is the worst intradivisional record in MLB. The Reds have averaged only 3.25 runs per game with a 6.60 ERA and a -41 run differential.

With last weekend’s series outcome vs. the Cardinals still pending after Sunday’s postponement, the Reds are winless in two of their three completed series vs. division rivals. 

“It’s always fun playing in the division because you play them a lot," starting pitcher Brady Singer said. "You know the hitters and the pitchers a little bit more, and it’s a little bit more cat-and-mouse and stuff like that.”

Amazingly, Cincinnati has yet to encounter the team that has given it the most trouble in recent history – the Brewers, who they don't see until June 22-24. The Reds have dropped 17 of 20 series vs. Milwaukee since 2021.

While overall record is the most important decider of success, getting into the playoffs could require tiebreaker assistance. The first one is head-to-head records, which helped the Reds overtake the Mets for the final playoff spot after Game 162 last year. 

The second tiebreaker is a team's winning percentage within its division.

“You always want to do better in your division. It can obviously help you, but I don’t really look too much into it this early in the year," Singer said. "More towards the end, you start thinking about that stuff and the tiebreaker for the Wild Card and stuff like that.”

The Reds get a break from division foes for nine straight games with series vs. the Mets, Braves and Royals before a trip to St. Louis on June 5-7. It doesn't guarantee success, of course, especially with Atlanta holding the best record in the NL.

Baseball's regular season schedule now opens in late March, much earlier than it did in past generations. But traditional markers of performance are often checked at Memorial Day, Fourth of July and Labor Day.

“The biggest marker is the last day of the year," Francona noted.

The circumstances felt like déjà vu for starting pitcher Chase Petty, but not the outcome. Petty was summoned to be the 27th man and make a spot start in Game 2 of Saturday's doubleheader vs. the Cardinals. Almost 13 months ago, on April 30, 2025, Petty made his Major League debut vs. the Cardinals in Game 2 of a doubleheader.

“It was funny, me and my wife were talking [about] just the parallels of last year – rainout against St. Louis, second game of a doubleheader at 7 o’clock," said Petty, Cincinnati's No. 7 prospect. "But we’re so much more calm this time. We’ve been here before."

Last year, Petty didn't fare well, as he gave up nine runs and seven hits with two walks, three strikeouts and two home runs across 2 1/3 innings during a 9-1 defeat. On Saturday, the 23-year-old gave up four runs and six hits over five-plus innings with one walk, one strikeout and a homer in a no-decision won by the Reds, 7-6, in 11 innings.

Petty had only thrown 53 pitches, with a sacrifice fly scoring the only run against him over the first five innings. He had retired eight of nine heading into the sixth inning after his lineup scored five runs in the bottom of the fifth for a 5-1 lead. 

Then things went a little sideways. Petty opened the sixth inning by hitting Iván Herrera with his first pitch and giving up a first-pitch double to Alec Burleson. Petty had Jordan Walker in a 0-2 count before falling behind, 3-2, and then saw his sinker launched to left-center field for a three-run homer that made it a one-run game.

That's when Francona lifted Petty from the game.

"Once he got the lead, he didn’t quite look like he was as aggressive when we scored a couple more," Francona said. "I think that’s a learning experience too.”

“The boys gave me a big lead there, and you kind of want to get out there and shut it down. [Then] the first three guys, that happened," Petty said. "I’m just excited the boys got a win, but it’s back to the drawing board for me. We’ve got a lot of stuff to work on, but we’ll be back in no time.”

In an earlier spot start in a no-decision at Chicago, a 5-4 Reds loss to the Cubs on May 4, Petty gave up three runs and four hits over 5 2/3 innings.

“I’ve definitely seen a lot of strides, a lot of progress, but a lot to work and a lot to still improve on," said Petty, who returned to Triple-A Louisville after the May 23 start.

During the next Reds homestand, on May 30 vs. the Braves, fans can receive a Spencer Steer Bobblecard – while supplies last.

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