Tuesday, June 30

MLB.com writer/researcher Theo DeRosa pinch-hit for beat reporter Brian McTaggart for this edition of the Astros Beat newsletter.

Josh Hader was activated from the injured list on June 2. The Astros entered play Monday with the American League’s best record in June. Coincidence???

OK, perhaps it’s not that simple. Other factors are at play in Houston’s midseason turnaround, such as the return of Hunter Brown and strong offensive performances from Yordan Alvarez, Jeremy Peña and Isaac Paredes. But what Hader has given the Astros since making his season debut has been highly valuable.

The lefty pitched a scoreless (albeit stressful) bottom of the ninth inning on Sunday in Detroit, setting up the Astros’ 7-5 win in 10 innings. Working around three walks, Hader struck out two to lower his ERA to 0.75 and earn his second win. In seven save opportunities this season, Hader is a perfect 7-for-7. He has allowed just one run, which came on a leadoff homer by Tigers rookie Kevin McGonigle in the ninth inning on June 17 before Hader bore down to earn his fourth save of the year.

Early on, Hader’s success has been validated by Statcast metrics. Which ones? Well … all of them.

With only 12 innings pitched, Hader has yet to qualify in most major quality-of-contact statistics, but he entered Sunday above average in all 11 primary pitching categories, and all the way in the red in seven of those.

Hader’s elite Statcast metrics, 2026

Entering Sunday

xERA: .055

xBA: .069

Avg. exit velo: 77.8 mph

Hard-hit rate: 16.7%

It’s still early, but Hader has been the pitcher the Astros expected when they signed him to a five-year, $95 million contract in January 2024. His first season in Houston wasn’t his best -- Hader had a 3.80 ERA in 71 innings, despite striking out 105 -- but Hader was much more solid last year with a 2.05 ERA in 52 2/3 frames, making the All-Star team for the sixth time in his career. 

Hader’s 2025 was cut short, though, when he sustained a left shoulder capsule strain in August and was placed on the injured list, missing the rest of the season. During an offseason bullpen session, he felt a grab in his left biceps while throwing a changeup and was diagnosed with biceps tendinitis. The issue ultimately cost Hader more than two months of 2026.

So far, though, he has been worth the wait. Hader has been dominating hitters with just two pitches, his sinker and slider, after appearing to scrap his changeup, which he threw 4.4% of the time in 2025, only to right-handed batters.

Hitters are lost against both of Hader’s offerings, batting 2-for-24 (.083) with 13 strikeouts against the sinker and 0-for-13 with six K’s against the slider. Entering Sunday, opponents had come up empty on 17 of their 30 swings on Hader’s slider (56.7% whiff rate). 

Overall, Hader’s 43.2% whiff rate is his highest since his career-high 45.2% mark in 2021. He’s also getting hitters to expand the zone, running a 45.7% chase rate, well above his previous career high of 37.7% in 2025.

That has added up to 19 strikeouts out of 43 batters faced, a 44.2% strikeout rate that ranks third among pitchers with 10 or more innings pitched, behind only the Padres’ Mason Miller (51.2%) and the Guardians’ Erik Sabrowski (46.2%). While that’s quite impressive, it’s actually the fourth-highest K rate of Hader’s career, although it’s his best since 2021.

Routinely landing first-pitch strikes has had a lot to do with that. Despite issuing three walks on Sunday, Hader started 0-1 on five of his six hitters to improve his first-strike percentage to 76.7% this season, a career high. That’s despite throwing fewer strikes than ever -- Hader’s in-zone rate entering Sunday was a career-low 43.6%.

Now 32 years old, Hader has been as successful as ever despite a decrease in velocity over the years. His sinker velo peaked at 97.4 mph (ranking in the 94th percentile of MLB hurlers) with the Brewers and Padres in 2022, but that dropped to 95.5 mph in ’25 and 95.2 mph so far this season.

Of course, it’s hard to draw any lasting conclusions from a 12-game sample, especially for a relief pitcher. But after missing almost 10 months due to injury, Hader has been as good as the Astros possibly could have asked for. If he can keep it up, he can help Houston continue its recent stretch of success.

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