Wednesday, September 03

CINCINNATI -- Remember when Elly De La Cruz was tracking to have a 30-30 season? 

After a summer-long power outage and recent slump for the two-time Reds All-Star shortstop, it would require a remarkable final month for De La Cruz to get to 30 home runs. That also might be what it would take for the Reds to get into the playoffs.

Through 136 games, De La Cruz was slashing .273/.342/.453 with 19 homers, 77 RBIs and 32 stolen bases. His .574 OPS in 26 games this August is the worst month of his career (.585 in May 2024). 

“I’ve been swinging at bad pitches lately, but that’s on me. They’re just doing their job," De La Cruz said of opposing pitchers. "I’ve got to do mine."

The 23-year-old De La Cruz has homered once since June 24, and it came on July 31 vs. the Braves. That's once in 57 games and 230 at-bats. 

Over his first 337 MLB games, De La Cruz averaged a home run every 23 at-bats.

“I don’t get too caught up in that," manager Terry Francona recently said. "You want to see good at-bats. He’s an ultra-aggressive kid to begin with. Sometimes he starts chasing a little, on the breaking ball that’s out of the zone. But when he gets pitches in [the zone], he’s usually OK. And I also think he gets pitched really tough, as most good hitters do.”

The analytics backup Francona's thoughts. With some help from MLB.com's Sarah Langs and Statcast, here is what we know:

De La Cruz is seeing more offspeed pitches, fewer fastballs 

Of all the pitches De La Cruz had seen this season entering Saturday, 47 percent were fastballs. That's the 12th-lowest fastball percentage based on a minimum 1,000 pitches. Last season, it was 52.5 percent, which was 67th lowest in MLB.

According to the chart below, De La Cruz saw his highest rate of fastballs this season in June. But of the 85 players to see at least 750 pitches since July 1, he has seen the second-lowest percentage of fastballs at 46.9 percent.

Batting third, De La Cruz is not getting enough protection in the lineup

Across MLB this season, Reds cleanup hitters entered Saturday ranking 21st in OPS and 22nd in home runs.

Austin Hays has batted fourth behind De La Cruz for much of the season. But as you can see here, Hays has seen even fewer fastballs than De La Cruz since July 1 at 43.1 percent to lead MLB in that category.

In part because of three stints on the injured list and the pitch selection he's getting, Hays has 11 homers this season -- 10 of them against fastballs. 

Miguel Andujar is among those who has batted fourth more recently while Hays has been batting fifth.

De La Cruz has had leg issues

Earlier in the season, De La Cruz was slowed by quadriceps and hamstring issues, but he hasn't missed a game this season and hopes to play all 162.

“He’s played through all of it," Francona said. "I think he’s handled it really well. If he didn’t, he wouldn’t be playing every day. … I love the fact that he wants to do that, I really do."

De La Cruz has attempted only three steals in August and seven in the second half, all successful.

There was an optimistic sign on Friday during a 7-5 Reds loss in 10 innings vs. the Cardinals. In the seventh inning, batting left-handed, De La Cruz hit a triple and motored well to third base. Then in the eighth, batting right-handed, he hit a big drive to right field that looked close to being a three-run homer before it was caught on the warning track.

“I thought off the bat he did it," Francona said. "You’ve heard me say it a million times. When somebody hits the ball the other way, it’s always a good sign. Because I know when the opponent does it, I get nervous.”

In 100 games and 369 at-bats for the Pirates this season, third baseman Ke'Bryan Hayes hit two homers. In 27 games and 87 at-bats since his July 30 trade to the Reds, Hayes already has three homers -- including a game-tying leadoff drive in the eighth inning on Friday.

For Pittsburgh in 2024, Hayes had four homers in 96 games and 365 at-bats. The change of scenery seems to be helping, but he didn't put too much into it.

“I haven’t really tried to do too much different, like in my preparation," Hayes said. "I think it's just kind of trying to be a little more on time. Some of it could be a different ballpark, too. The main focus has been trying to have good at-bats, just because we’re in the middle of trying to get to the playoffs, so there’s not a whole lot of time to try to get too mechanical.”

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