Friday, March 28

DUNEDIN, Fla. -- Spring Training can be more about avoiding bad news than finding good news, but the Blue Jays have done well with both. 

Some injuries in their bullpen will test their depth earlier than anyone planned and Daulton Varsho still needs a little more time to get his shoulder back in game shape, but for the most part, it’s been a clean camp.

The signs of the season have crept in over the past week in Dunedin. First came the moving trucks, then the even larger trucks used to transport players’ vehicles north. Lockers began to empty out as big, empty cardboard boxes waited each morning. 

It’s finally time for the games that count. Here’s how the season looks for the Blue Jays:

What needs to go right: Secondary offense
Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette and Anthony Santander should be able to scrape a few runs together. It’s the rest of the lineup that will determine how much fun you have watching the Blue Jays this season. Alejandro Kirk feels like the biggest piece in all of this after an excellent camp, but younger names like Alan Roden and Addison Barger could help to raise the ceiling, too. The early impact of new hitting coach David Popkins has been very noticeable already.

Great unknown: The bullpen
Last year, the Blue Jays’ bullpen was a mess. It was the worst combination of injuries, luck and poor performance all at once, so there’s nowhere to go but up for that group. Jeff Hoffman could immediately be one of the most dominant closers in baseball, but with Erik Swanson, Ryan Burr and Zach Pop all scheduled to open the season on the IL, the Blue Jays are already forced to lean on their depth. Yimi García’s role will be extremely important and it’s up to the starters to shorten games right out of the gate.

Team MVP will be: Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

He’s one of the best hitters on the planet. Pair that with the motivation of a contract year? It’s scary. 

Bichette is in the same boat and has looked absolutely fantastic in camp, particularly at the plate. Even Andrés Giménez is a dark horse candidate to lead this team in WAR if he can add a sprinkle of offensive value on top of his all-world defense and great baserunning. 

Guerrero will be the story all season long, though, and the best way to keep contract noise at bay is to win, thus keeping the focus on the next day and the next at-bat. If Guerrero stumbles as an individual or the Blue Jays stumble as a team, this could get awkward in a hurry ahead of the Trade Deadline, but everything is in place for Guerrero to have a peak season… or at least something similar to 2021.

Team Cy Young will be: Kevin Gausman

With a glance alone, you can see there’s something different about Gausman this season. He’s put on a bit more weight than he usually does in the offseason, which is all intentional. Gausman slowly sheds weight over the course of a season, so he wants to start from a higher point to help himself hold up physically to the grind of a long summer. 

His stuff is back, too. All the way back. Gausman spent last spring trying to catch up to everyone around him after a minor shoulder issue delayed his start to throwing. He survived on his incredible talent alone, still posting a 3.83 ERA over 181 innings, but he still spent much of the season in search of the consistent dominance he’d shown in past seasons.

It’s all about missing bats for Gausman. That’s the big difference between his 2024 results and what came prior, and this spring, he’s doing a ton of that. Having Gausman return to legitimate ace form -- capable of stealing a few games along the way -- would change the entire trajectory of this team.

(Two) Bold Predictions

Gausman will finish top-three in AL Cy Young Award voting. 

Guerrero will sign a long-term contract with the Blue Jays … on December 10, 2025.

It’s long felt like the likeliest path to a long-term contract between Vladdy and the Blue Jays still includes a trip to free agency, much like Aaron Judge and the Yankees. Mark Shapiro’s recent comments only strengthened that idea. 

These big deals tend to break around the Winter Meetings. Juan Soto’s deal with the Mets broke on Dec. 8. Shohei Ohtani’s deal with the Dodgers broke on Dec. 9. Perhaps it’s Vladdy’s turn on Dec. 10.

Vladdy has been working hard on his English. It’s a hard language to learn, but as he’s become more comfortable speaking it in groups, that’s helped him take a noticeable step forward as a leader in the Blue Jays’ clubhouse.

“I want to be more vocal. If you need me, I’m going to be right over there,” Guerrero said. “In the past, I didn’t like it because I didn’t like somebody laughing about my English, but now I can speak more English and I feel more comfortable speaking. It’s way better. I can communicate with everybody.”

Speaking with MLB.com recently, Guerrero explained that the process has been difficult, but he’s had a great teacher ... and an important reason to keep going. 

“It’s hard, but my daughter has helped me a lot,” Guerrero said. “I only speak with her in English, so that’s why I’m getting better.”

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