Welcome back to the Cubs Beat newsletter. Jordan Bastian has covered baseball for MLB.com since 2005, including the Cubs since the 2019 season. |
CHICAGO – After Pete Crow-Armstrong crashed into Wrigley Field’s ivy-covered wall in the seventh inning on Tuesday night – making an incredible running catch to steal a hit away from Detroit’s Ben Malgeri – the Cubs’ dynamic center fielder was smiling wide as he ran back to the dugout. Cubs manager Craig Counsell was happy the catch came up after the 11-2 win. “I’m glad we’re still talking about it – we’ll probably start to take it for granted a little bit,” Counsell said of Crow-Armstrong’s defense. “But, they’re just plays that nobody else is going to make. Nobody else is making the plays. And you’re going to have to watch baseball a long time to find someone who’s going to make the plays. That’s how good it is.” Crow-Armstrong was serenaded with the usual “P-C-A!” chants from the Cubs faithful in the wake of that recent play. Over the final two months, expect some cries of “M-V-P!” to begin raining down from the stands at the Friendly Confines. That is how good the center fielder’s season has been to date for the North Siders. Could Crow-Armstrong really put himself in the National League MVP conversation? Here is what it might take. |
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Ohtani takes extended break from pitching Dodgers superstar Shohei Ohtani has won each of the last two MVP Awards in the Senior Circuit and he has picked up four total (another two with the Angels in the American League) across the past five years. As an elite hitter and pitcher, Ohtani is the annual favorite for this award. Early on this season, Ohtani was also pitching at a level that made it seem possible that he might even be positioned to check the NL Cy Young Award off his career to-do list. Through 14 starts, Ohtani has posted a pristine 1.79 ERA with 95 strikeouts in 85 2/3 innings. Combine that with his offensive abilities (.922 OPS at the moment) and Ohtani is the MVP front-runner. Recently, however, a left knee issue has forced Ohtani to take a pause from pitching for an undetermined amount of time. While the star threw off a mound on Wednesday, there is no firm timetable for his return to pitching. Ohtani will focus on hitting for now, and that has created some rumblings that maybe, just maybe, Crow-Armstrong has a window to push for the MVP in the coming months. Crow-Armstrong is currently the only player with at least 20 homers and 20 steals (he has 21-25) in MLB and should notch his second straight 30-30 campaign. He just set a Statcast Era record for five-star catches with his 33rd such grab. He has thrived in the leadoff spot for the Cubs and had a .905 OPS overall entering Wednesday. That is MVP-caliber stuff in the non-Ohtani division. |
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PCA’s plate discipline is not a fluke During that same win over the Tigers on Tuesday night, Crow-Armstrong drew three walks, including one with the bases loaded in the first inning. Oh, he also led off that opening frame with a triple to ignite a six-run outburst for the North Siders. Consider this: Crow-Armstrong has 10 games this season with at least two walks and three games already with three free passes drawn. Prior to this year, Chicago’s center fielder had only two games with two walks (out of 293 career games from ‘23-25). He had a .384 on-base percentage going into Wednesday – up from .287 last year and .286 in ‘24. “The rate at which it’s improved and how fast it’s improved,” Counsell said, “I don’t have any comparisons to it. I don’t have a great explanation for it. I think it’s just a great athlete coming into his own as a great player.” Crow-Armstrong has moved closer to the plate, especially against left-handed pitching, and earlier this season a conversation with Alex Bregman helped the center fielder think differently about his approach in the box. That helped Crow-Armstrong take off in late May, absolutely dominate offensively in June, and he has not looked back. Crow-Armstrong’s swing rate has dropped from 60.1% last year to 49.8% this year – that 10.3% difference marking the largest year-to-year change among qualified hitters this season. Similarly, the 7.3% difference in walk rate (4.5% in ‘25 to 11.8% in ‘26) is also the biggest jump in baseball. |
Lead the NL in WAR Crow-Armstrong’s incredible defense (his +20 Fielding Run Value tops baseball), combined with his elite speed and impressive improvement on offense, had him atop the FanGraphs’ leaderboard for WAR (6.3) going into play on Wednesday. If the Cubs star can stay there in the next two-plus months, that will up his MVP odds. MVP voters have increasingly relied on advanced metrics as the years have gone on. Looking at the NL only, and excluding the abbreviated 2020 season, nine of the last 13 MVP winners were the position players who led the league in fWAR. That includes 2018, when Christian Yelich was third overall in the NL, but first among hitters. The NL leader in fWAR (pitcher or hitter) has also won nine of the last 13 (Clayton Kershaw was first and won MVP in 2014). If Crow-Armstrong can finish first in the NL – staying ahead of Ohtani’s two-way production – he would be the first Cubs player to lead the league in fWAR since Kris Bryant in 2017. That was one of the exceptions on the list, as Giancarlo Stanton (third in fWAR in ‘17) won the MVP. Bryant also led the NL in that category in ‘16 and won MVP that year. |
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“The on-base component of leading off, that’s a big deal. He’s on base a ton for some really good hitters behind him. That makes a huge difference. And he’s just a threat. He’s a tough, tough at-bat for the pitcher in all ways.” – Counsell, on Crow-Armstrong |
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