Friday, October 02

Welcome back to the Cubs Beat newsletter. Jordan Bastian has covered baseball for MLB.com since 2005, including the Cubs since the 2019 season.

MESA, Ariz. – There has been a phrase that Cubs manager Craig Counsell has leaned on with his team this spring in order to set the tone for the season:

Protect the standard.

The idea being that the Cubs set the bar high last year, winning 92 games, making the playoffs and coming within a win of reaching the National League Championship Series. The goal is to take things further this year. Winning the NL Central is the first task. Beyond that, making a deep October run is the next expectation.

“How the guys interacted last year,” Counsell said, “what they found important to each other was important, was good, was meaningful. And it created something that I think they should be proud of. And it’s something to live up to.”

The bulk of last year’s team is back, but Cubs Opening Day starter Matthew Boyd said “there’s a big power” in the continuity that exists with this group. And the front office brought in more star power between third baseman Alex Bregman and hard-throwing righty Edward Cabrera, creating a deeper roster.

“We all work really hard to be part of a team like this,” Counsell said. “It’s not easy to get to a place like this. It’s not easy to get to a roster like this. It’s not easy to get yourself on a roster like this. That’s fun. And I think it makes you accountable, it makes you responsible and you realize that every day is going to be a lot of fun.”

WHAT NEEDS TO GO RIGHT: Bregman’s impact is real

The Cubs are not expecting Bregman to be a one-for-one replacement for the kind of offensive performance Kyle Tucker turned in during his one-year stint in Chicago last season. What the veteran can do is bring another experienced hitter with strong plate discipline and contact ability to a lineup already strong in those departments.

From there, the Cubs believe Bregman can help some younger players find more consistency or take steps forward in their MLB development. Bregman should fit right in with one of baseball’s best defensive units as well. If Bregman makes an immediate impact, this Cubs offense should be a formidable group.

THE GREAT UNKNOWN: Matt Shaw, super utility man

Shaw was the Cubs’ regular at third base in ‘25 and ended the year with some down-ballot Rookie of the Year votes and as a finalist for a Gold Glove Award. When the Cubs signed Bregman, Shaw was asked to move off third and try his hand at being a super sub for both the infield and outfield.

The 24-year-old Shaw is athletic enough to play all over the field, but there were ups and downs this spring as he learned new positions. Offensively, Shaw also had an up-and-down showing last year, posting a .556 OPS in the first half and an .839 OPS after the break. Shaw is hoping to be a steady part of the lineup in ‘26, so it will be interesting to see how the Cubs try to make that happen.

TEAM MVP WILL BE: Pete Crow-Armstrong

Crow-Armstrong found stardom last season, when he started in center for the NL’s All-Star team, picked up his first career Gold Glove Award with a historic year defensively and stayed in the MVP discussion until a second-half fade. He was the fastest player in Cubs history to reach 30 homers and 30 steals in a season, and the only Cubs player ever to add 30-plus doubles to the equation. If Crow-Armstrong can meet his goal of being more consistent, he can be one of the game’s elite all-round players with his speed and defense.

TEAM CY YOUNG WILL BE: Cade Horton

The 24-year-old Horton could be on the cusp of a big sophomore campaign after finishing as the runner-up for the NL Rookie of the Year Award in 2025. The righty went 11-4 with a 2.67 ERA in his first MLB season, ending with 97 strikeouts and 33 walks across 118 innings. Horton spun a ridiculous 1.03 ERA in his final 12 turns and logged a 1.63 ERA in 11 games at Wrigley Field in 2025. He had a strong showing this spring – including an outing with 21 whiffs – and will be a name to watch all season long.

BOLD PREDICTION: Daniel Palencia gets 40 saves

Counsell is not typically one for labels, but he came right out and dubbed Palencia the closer at the start of spring. The baseball world then watched Palencia turn in a brilliant performance for Venezuela in the World Baseball Classic, picking up saves in the quarterfinals, semis and championship game. Only two MLB pitchers (Carlos Estévez and Robert Suarez) reached at least 40 saves in ‘25, and the Cubs have not had a 40-save reliever since 1998 (Rod Beck had 51 that summer), so the odds are against this happening. That said, Palencia could be poised for a monster year out of the Cubs’ bullpen.

The Cubs opened last season against the Dodgers at the Tokyo Dome in Japan. The previous year, the North Siders were in Texas to begin the season. Thursday’s lidlifter will be a welcomed trip home to begin the season in front of the Wrigley Field faithful.

“Opening Day should be a holiday in Chicago,” said Boyd, “with the buzz and energy that surrounds the field and the city.”

The fans flocking to the Friendly Confines will get a flyover by F/A-18 Hornets from the United States Marine Fighter Attack Squadron 112, plus an on-field flag presentation featuring the American flag and one celebrating the ballclub’s 150th anniversary.

Former Cubs great Anthony Rizzo is in the plans for throwing out a ceremonial first pitch, beginning the season’s 10-year anniversary celebration of the 2016 World Series champions. A group of Cubs Hall of Famers will also be on hand to lead singing during the seventh-inning stretch.

• Seiya Suzuki (right knee) ruled out for Opening Day. Read more >>
• Moisés Ballesteros makes the 26-man roster for Cubs. Read more >>
• Pedro Ramírez caps big camp with Spring Breakout. Read more >>
• Pipeline takes a look at the state of the Cubs’ system. Read more >>
• These are the Top 10 lineups in baseball in ‘26. Read more >>

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