Monday, September 28

Welcome to this edition of the Tigers Beat newsletter.

Monday’s news that two-time American League Cy Young Award winner Tarik Skubal will undergo surgery to remove loose bodies in his pitching elbow left plenty of questions to ponder. Monday’s breaking news story tried to address the basics, but here are more questions and answers to ponder.

How long has this been a problem for Skubal?

The first obvious sign that something might be amiss with Skubal came during his last start last Wednesday in Atlanta. Late in his outing, he shook out his left arm after a pitch and called catcher Dillon Dingler to the mound, which led to manager A.J. Hinch and the training staff checking on Skubal as well.

Skubal stayed in the game, struck out the side in his final inning while throwing multiple fastballs at 97+ mph. It flared up again Sunday, but the Tigers were preparing contingency plans, scratching Ty Madden from his scheduled start for Triple-A Toledo just in case.

But as Skubal explained Monday, the issue had been going on a lot longer than that.

“This is something that I've been dealing with all season,” he said. “It's good to get an answer, honestly.”

What are “loose bodies" in an elbow?

Usually they’re bone spurs, bone chips or fragments of cartilage that break off from the bones around the elbow joint. Sometimes they’re just part of normal wear and tear for a pitcher. Sometimes they can indicate an injury. The bodies can float around the elbow undetected for years; they don’t become a problem unless they get in the way of the elbow functioning. That’s why Skubal can have occasional flare-ups that come and go. But in the wrong spot, they can become a major problem and must be removed.

How long will Skubal be out?

Neither the Tigers nor Skubal is putting a timetable on it, for good reason. The surgery hasn’t been scheduled yet, so they don’t know exactly what is in there and if there’s any underlying issue that might have led to the loose bodies. A typical timetable for such a surgery is two to three months. Dodgers closer Edwin Díaz had a similar procedure a couple of weeks ago and is expected to return in July or August.

“It’s anybody’s guess right now until he actually has the surgery,” Hinch said. “We’ve got to talk to the doctor, have the surgery and form a plan of rehab. So a lot has to happen before we race to the return. I think it’s a relatively simple procedure, if you can call any type of surgical intervention simple.”

How can the Tigers replace their ace?

Colleague Mark Feinsand tackled this question well Monday night with both a quick look at internal replacements and a list of potential trade candidates going into the summer. The latter, of course, depends on the Tigers staying in contention without Skubal.

For now, Madden essentially slots into the rotation; he pitched bulk innings Monday. But they’ll need another starter or bullpen game to replace Casey Mize, who will miss at least one more turn while he works back from a hamstring injury. Drew Anderson could become an important part of the stopgap. After all, the Tigers signed him in December to be a starting-rotation option.

Longer term, the Tigers’ plan to stretch out Troy Melton as a starter during his rehab assignment takes on more focus. Melton threw 1 2/3 innings and 31 pitches Sunday in his first rehab start for Single-A Lakeland. He’ll need a few more outings to stretch out his innings, since he never got to pitch in Spring Training, but he should be ready by the end of the month.

Don’t forget Justin Verlander, whose slow progress back from left hip inflammation has him ready to face hitters soon. He’ll need a rehab start before the Tigers slot him back into the rotation, but he’s now progressing well enough to think he should be back sometime this month.

Jackson Jobe is on track to return from Tommy John surgery sometime after the All-Star break. By then, the Tigers should have a pretty clear idea of when Skubal will return and how he fits into the stretch run.

What does this mean for Skubal’s free agency?

Players on the Major League injured list still accumulate service time, so Skubal is still on track to become a free agent at the end of the season.

What surgery means for Skubal’s potential market remains to be seen, and could depend a lot on how Skubal pitches after his return. It could also depend on what Skubal wants out of his next contract after this, whether a long-term deal takes on an even greater priority or a short-term deal potentially comes into play to give Skubal a chance to hit the market off of a full, healthy season.

But the situation is the latest example of why free agency is so hard to predict, especially for pitchers.

Feinsand wrote about this, too, with good insight from Major League executives and evaluators.

Have the Tigers had more injuries than usual?

Yes. Even before Skubal’s injury, this was true. Rotowire.com, which tracks injured lists across organizations, counts 32 players in the Tigers' system on Major and Minor League injured lists (now an MLB-leading 33 with Skubal), including 13 on the 60-day injured list on Monday (tied for most in MLB). That’s basically a full team roster and then some.

It’s a lot, but it also means the Tigers have become accustomed to filling in.

“We’ve won before with multiple people doing different things,” Hinch said. “You’ve watched this with Parker [Meadows], you’ve watched it with [Zach McKinstry] and Javy [Báez] and Will Vest. I mean, I can name 14 guys who are on the injured list right now. So a team takes that body blow or that uppercut, that punch, and it hits you for a minute, and then you’ve got to get back to competing. …

“We have to take that mentality to overcome this [injury] in particular, but also the ones before that. It’s a big test, no doubt. You can’t deny that it’s a big blow, but we’re not going to cancel the season. We’re going to play the games.”

Celebrate Cinco de Mayo at Comerica Park Tuesday night with food and drink specials, including $3 tacos at various concession stands and a Cinco sampler package in the Big Cat Court featuring two tacos, churros, chips and cheese. It’s also a Bark in the Park night with a special ticket package that includes a donation to the Michigan Humane Society. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40. Visit tigers.com/tickets for more information.

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