Wednesday, April 02

Welcome back to the Cubs Beat newsletter. Jordan Bastian has covered baseball for MLB.com since 2005, including the Cubs since the 2019 season.

TOKYO -- The Cubs were honored to face the Hanshin Tigers and Yomiuri Giants to begin their week spent in Japan. It was a chance to encounter a different style of baseball and do so within the Tokyo Dome’s historic and raucous environment.

Now, the real journey begins for the North Siders.

“Fast forward, the regular season starts for us,” Cubs manager Craig Counsell said. “And that means it’s the championship season and it’s two games that count. And we get the opportunity to play the world champions, which means it’s a great challenge and a great way to start our test.”

The Cubs will begin their season against the Dodgers in the Tokyo Series, with Shota Imanaga taking the ball on Opening Day on Tuesday. With the season officially starting for Chicago, here’s a look at what lies ahead for the North Siders.

What Needs to Go Right?

Simply put: the Cubs need to make the postseason. All of the moves made by president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer this offseason pointed to a sense of urgency to return to the October stage. The winter was headlined by the blockbuster trade with the Astros that brought star outfielder Kyle Tucker to the Cubs.

Beyond Tucker, the Cubs’ front office built up the team’s depth for the rotation and bullpen (most notably, acquiring veteran Ryan Pressly), while fortifying the bench. The roster looks better prepared to weather some of the injury issues that took a toll on the club in last season’s 83-win showing.

Great Unknown

Can Matthew Boyd piece together a full season? The Cubs invested in the veteran lefty with a two-year, $29 million contract based on only 61 1/3 Major League innings with Cleveland last year between the regular season and playoffs. In fact, Boyd has averaged 51 innings per year (topping out at 78 2/3 innings in 2021 prior to flexor tendon surgery that September).

The 34-year-old Boyd returned from Tommy John surgery last season and spun a 2.72 ERA in eight outings before adding three more strong appearances in the playoffs. The Cubs are banking on the strong history of pitchers in their second year removed from TJ. If Boyd does stay healthy and builds off his 2024 showing, that will really deepen Chicago’s rotation.

Team MVP Will Be …

Tucker is the easy choice here, because the Cubs swung their blockbuster trade with the Astros this past offseason with the idea that he would be an MVP-caliber bat this year. The star outfielder has an old-school swing, combined with a keen eye for the strike zone and the ability to blend power, contact and speed in the heart of the lineup.

Over the last four years combined, Tucker is one of just 11 players to post at least 20.0 bWAR, and he ranks sixth in that group with an .888 OPS in that span. The only hitters above him on that list are Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani, Juan Soto, Freddie Freeman and Mookie Betts. He posted 4.7 bWAR with a .993 OPS in 2024, even while limited to 78 games due to injury.

Team Cy Young Will Be …

With apologies to lefty Shota Imanaga and the incredible rookie campaign he logged in the 2024 season, let’s go with Justin Steele for this category. Steele was the Cubs’ Opening Day starter last year following a breakout showing in ‘23, when he was an All-Star and finished fifth in balloting for the NL Cy Young Award.

Picking Steele here is based on the steadiness of his last two seasons. While the lefty logged fewer innings due to injury in 2024, many of his rate stats were eerily similar to ‘23. He posted a 3.07 ERA in ‘24 after having a 3.06 ERA the previous year. His home run rate (0.8 per nine innings in ‘24 and 0.7 in ‘23) and strikeout rate (24.3% in ‘24 and 24.6% in ‘23) were nearly the same, too.

Bold Prediction

Let’s call it: Matt Shaw will take home the NL Rookie of the Year Award. OK, that might not seem like the most bold of predictions, but consider the competition Shaw will face in this race this summer. Roki Sasaki of the Dodgers enters 2025 as the clear front-runner, but Dylan Crews of the Nationals, Bubba Chandler of the Pirates and Andrew Painter of the Phillies, among others, could present a challenge.

Shaw made the roster for the Cubs’ trip to Japan and clearly looks poised for inclusion again when the domestic opener arrives later this month. While Counsell has described Shaw’s stance and fielding style “unconventional,” the manager is also quick to point out that the rookie third baseman has hit at every level and met every challenge to date.

• How Imanaga altered his pitching style before brilliant rookie year. Read more >>

• Seiya Suzuki collects a hit in first game back in Japan with Cubs. Read more >> 

• Cubs begin building their “kizuna” on first day together in Tokyo. Read more >>

• Shaw’s last Tokyo experience offers some comfort ahead of MLB debut. Read more >>

• A look at the Tokyo Series pitching matchups for Cubs, Dodgers. Read more >>

• Cubs, Dodgers each have a rich history of players from Japan. Read more >>

• MLB.com’s Manny Randhawa covered Cubs’ Spring Breakout in Arizona. Read more >>

“Shota did an incredible job introducing himself to the fans of Chicago. I was sitting maybe in the [second row] at his initial press conference, and that was maybe the best press conference I have seen a player -- American or Japanese -- do in his introduction to a team. It’s hard to do. He did a lot in English. Showed his personality. Showed his competitiveness. Showed he likes to have fun. And it’s the same thing when he pitches.” -- Counsell, on Imanaga

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