Thursday, September 24

A decade ago, Tigers president/general manager Dave Dombrowski assembled Detroit’s last super rotation when he made the Trade Deadline deal to get David Price from the Rays. By adding Price to a group that included Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, Rick Porcello and Aníbal Sánchez, Dombrowski built a collection of pitchers who would eventually combine for eight Cy Young awards, 22 All-Star selections, seven World Series titles and 246.1 career bWAR to date.

“This staff, there's five leaders, I feel like, with the way that these guys are throwing the baseball,” Price said at the time. “I guess if Rick Porcello is our five, that's pretty remarkable.”

None of those aforementioned World Series championships came in Detroit. That 2014 rotation helped the Tigers earn a fourth consecutive AL Central crown, but it couldn’t overcome roster flaws elsewhere or a short-series offensive slump in a three-game Division Series sweep to the Orioles. But as valuable as it was to go for it in 2014, the Price trade was also meant to give the Tigers insurance in 2015 if Scherzer left via free agency as expected. Price had only one more year of control than Scherzer, but it was one more year with a group that included Verlander, Sánchez and a star-studded lineup.

Fast forward 10-plus years, and Wednesday’s agreement on a three-year, $115 million deal with former Astros ace Framber Valdez – while not yet confirmed by the club pending a physical – has a similar feel to the Price trade. By pairing Valdez with back-to-back Cy Young Award winner Tarik Skubal, Detroit has a chance to throw as good of a 1-2 punch of starting pitchers at opponents as there is in baseball. While the full rotation won’t be quite on the level as the 2014 Tigers, it’s a formidable quintet from a group that includes three All-Stars, a couple former World Series champions and six pitchers who have started postseason games.

Just as important, Valdez’s deal puts him in Detroit’s rotation next year, making him one of the Tigers’ few certainties. Not only is Skubal eligible for free agency next winter, so are Jack Flaherty and Casey Mize. Drew Anderson could join them if the Tigers decline their $10 million option on his contract at season’s end. The Tigers could potentially have to rebuild their rotation for 2027, but Valdez would give them a good starting point.

In the wake of the surprising signing, here are some questions and answers about what the Valdez agreement means for the Tigers:

What makes Valdez appealing to the Tigers?

Valdez is a durable innings eater, having averaged 30 starts and just under 192 innings per season over the last four years. He threw seven innings or deeper in 12 of his 31 starts last year, but crossed the 100-pitch mark only once in those outings, and three times overall. His strikeout rate is just about average, sitting around 23-24 percent over the last four years, and his walk rate has been right around average but climbing. But Valdez, despite a high rate of hard contact, is elite at inducing ground balls, ranking in the 91st percentile or better for ground-ball rate every year since 2019, according to Baseball Savant. His rate of balls pulled in the air is consistently low, while his rate of balls pulled on the ground has stayed steady around 29-30 percent or better since 2021. His 94-95 mile-per-hour sinker gets above-average vertical drop, and his curveball gets a ton of movement.

What does the Tigers rotation look like for 2026?

Valdez would join Skubal atop Detroit’s rotation, followed by Flaherty and Mize. The fifth spot could be an interesting competition in Spring Training. Reese Olson is expected to be ready after missing the stretch run of last season with a shoulder strain, but the Tigers have options if he needs time to settle in. Anderson can slot in the rotation or bullpen. So, too, can Troy Melton, though the Tigers could stretch out Melton at Triple-A Toledo if they so choose to have him ready as an insurance policy in case of injuries.

What does a Valdez deal mean for Skubal’s future?

Short term, Skubal won his arbitration hearing against the Tigers and will earn $32 million this coming season. The average annual value of Valdez’s agreement would top that at $38.3 million, and would mean that Detroit would have just over $70 million in payroll committed to two starting pitchers. Even so, the Tigers’ projected payroll with Valdez and Skubal would sit at just over $229 million according to Spotrac, 11th highest in the Majors and about $14.74 million under the first luxury tax threshold. The Tigers can carry both for this year without going into luxury tax territory.

Long term, as mentioned earlier, Valdez gives the Tigers a front-line starter for next year if the Tigers can’t work out a contract extension with Skubal and he leaves as a free agent. Flaherty, under contract for $20 million this season, will also be a free agent, as will Mize, who signed a one-year, $6.15 million deal last month. Melton and Jackson Jobe, currently rehabbing from last summer’s Tommy John surgery, could be ready to step into rotation slots. But the Tigers also have several key position players in their arbitration years, including Riley Greene, Spencer Torkelson and Kerry Carpenter.

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